The Morning Call
9/4/24
The
Market
Technical
Tuesday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/semis-slaughtered-september-starts-carnage-everywhere
Note: stocks took
on the chin yesterday. As a result, (1) the S&P failed to make a new high
and (2) it is close to a challenge of its 50 DMA [~5497]. Of course, one day
does not a trend make; so as always, follow through is important. But a dip
below the 50 DMA, opens the way to the 100 DMA (~5368) and the 23.6% Fibonacci
retracement level (~5157)---which also marked the low of the ‘Yen carry trade
selloff’.
More
charts to consider.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/maybe-earnings-numbers-are-just-wrong
Overbought conditions
set up short term correction.
Market risks
increase in September.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/risks-facing-bullish-investors-september-begins
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly mortgage applications
were up 1.6% while purchase applications were up 3.0%.
The July trade
balance was -$78.8 billion versus expectations of -$79.0 billion.
July construction spending fell 0.3% versus
consensus of 0.0%.
The August manufacturing PMI came in at 47.9
versus predictions of 48.0.
The August ISM manufacturing index was 47.2
versus estimates of 47.5.
International
The July EU PPI was +0.8% versus projections
of +0.3%.
The August
Japanese services PMI was 53.7 versus forecasts of 54.0; the August composite
PMI was 52.9 versus 53.0; The August Chinese Caixin service PMI was 51.6 versus
52.2; the August composite PMI was 51.2 versus 51.0; the August German services
PMI was 51.2 versus 51.4; the August composite PMI was 48.4 versus 48.5; the
August EU services PMI was 52.9 versus 53.3; the August composite PMI was 51.0 versus
51.2; the August UK services PMI was 53.7 versus 53.3; the august composite PMI
was 53.8 versus 53.4.
Other
Creative destruction rips through the
commercial property market.
https://www.ft.com/content/531f2cda-f378-441c-8158-207a1305d7de
Monetary
Policy
What rate cuts mean for GDP growth and
inflation.
https://www.apolloacademy.com/quantifying-what-fed-cuts-mean-for-gdp-and-inflation/
Fiscal
Policy
Taxing unrealized capital gains is a terrible
idea.
Stupid price gouging discourse (from my
favorite liberal blogger).
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/09/the-stupid-price-gouging-discourse.html
The lack of
accountability in spending. This article addresses spending on defense. While
it implies the lack of accountability, it fails to focus on the most elementary
aspect of budgeting. The Pentagon has never passed an audit and, hence, is
basically immune from repercussions for irresponsible spending. That has to
stop. The examples of waste in the military are too innumerable to list. The
aggregiousness of this is matched only by the waste of lives pursuing
unwinnable wars.
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/f-35-most-expensive/
Civil
Strife
The West’s real enemy.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/david-sacks-wests-real-enemy-itself
Bottom line
Wall Street
strategists face their own short squeeze.
The demand for
‘fall back’ money.
Update on
valuations.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/09/03/p-e10-and-market-valuation-august-2024
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
Being
careful how you read/interpret the news.
https://www.tker.co/p/facts-in-the-news-that-can-lead-you-astray
Exercising our character.
https://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2024/09/exercising-our-character-improving.html
Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
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