Wednesday, September 18, 2024

The Morning Call---How are traders positioned for today's FOMC meeting?

 

The Morning Call

 

9/18/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bonds-sold-ahead-fed-decision-crypto-crude-surge

 

            How traders are positioned for today’s FOMC meeting.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/amid-unprecedented-uncertainty-traders-face-record-losses-if-fed-doesnt-cut-50

 

            Gold and a rate cut.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/gold-fed-cuts-china-bid-fades-and-heavy-longs

 

            The negative forces currently at work.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/buyback-blackout-begins-and-3-other-reasons-why-stocks-are-about-stumble

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Month to date retail chain store sales grew much slower than in the prior week.

 

Weekly mortgage applications were up 14.2% while purchase applications were up 5.0%.

 

August housing starts were up 9.6% versus projections of up 3.2%; building permits were up 4.9% versus +1.1%.

 

August industrial production increased 0.8% versus consensus of +0.2%; capacity utilization was 78% versus 77.9%.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/09/industrial-production-increased-08-in.html

 

The September housing index was reported at 41 versus expectations of 40.0.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/09/nahb-builder-confidence-increased-in.html

 

                        International

 

July Japanese machine tool orders fell 0.1% versus estimates of an increase of 0.5%; the August trade balance was -Y695.3 billion versus -Y1380 billion.

 

July EU YoY construction output fell 2.2% versus predictions of +1.3%; August CPI was up 0.1% versus +0.2%.

 

August UK CPI rose 0.3%, in line; core CPI was up 0.4%, also in line.

 

                        Other

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Does it really matter what the Fed does?

              https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-what-will-the-fed-do/?src=news

 

              What happens if the Fed cuts 50bp?

              https://www.ft.com/content/03eafa4e-7247-4fc5-b9fa-1273402d2b16

 

              Another vote for a 50 bp cut.

              https://stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/fifty

 

              Counterpoint.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nifty-shifty-grifty-swift-y-fifty-50

 

              Another.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/super-size-50bps-cut-be-careful-what-you-wish

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Government spending and inflation.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2024/09/17/money-not-spending-causes-inflation

 

            Inflation

 

              No time for a victory lap on inflation (must read).

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2024/09/17/no_time_for_victory_laps_on_inflation_1058710.html

 

            Recession

 

              One indicator of the probability of recession.

              https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/09/triple-top-pattern-locking-in-for-us.html

 

            Civil Strife

 

              The reinterpretation of human rights.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/political/ruling-elites-create-orwellian-reinterpretation-human-rights

 

     Bottom line

 

            Momentum versus value investing.

            Momentum Investing Gives You An Edge, Until It Doesn't - RIA (realinvestmentadvice.com)

 

            The conundrum of declining yields.

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/desperately-seeking-yield-17-september-2024/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

What I am reading today

 

            Sunlight, clouds and climate.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/sunlight-and-clouds-not-co2-drive-earths-climate-shocking-new-study-finds

 

            Quote of the day.

            https://cafehayek.com/2024/09/quotation-of-the-day-4764.html

           

 

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