The Morning Call
9/18/24
The
Market
Technical
Tuesday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bonds-sold-ahead-fed-decision-crypto-crude-surge
How traders are
positioned for today’s FOMC meeting.
Gold and a rate
cut.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/gold-fed-cuts-china-bid-fades-and-heavy-longs
The negative forces
currently at work.
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Month to date
retail chain store sales grew much slower than in the prior week.
Weekly mortgage
applications were up 14.2% while purchase applications were up 5.0%.
August housing
starts were up 9.6% versus projections of up 3.2%; building permits were up 4.9%
versus +1.1%.
August industrial
production increased 0.8% versus consensus of +0.2%; capacity utilization was
78% versus 77.9%.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/09/industrial-production-increased-08-in.html
The September
housing index was reported at 41 versus expectations of 40.0.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/09/nahb-builder-confidence-increased-in.html
International
July Japanese
machine tool orders fell 0.1% versus estimates of an increase of 0.5%; the
August trade balance was -Y695.3 billion versus -Y1380 billion.
July EU YoY
construction output fell 2.2% versus predictions of +1.3%; August CPI was up
0.1% versus +0.2%.
August UK CPI rose
0.3%, in line; core CPI was up 0.4%, also in line.
Other
Monetary
Policy
Does it really matter what the Fed does?
https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-what-will-the-fed-do/?src=news
What happens if the Fed cuts 50bp?
https://www.ft.com/content/03eafa4e-7247-4fc5-b9fa-1273402d2b16
Another vote for a 50 bp cut.
https://stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/fifty
Counterpoint.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nifty-shifty-grifty-swift-y-fifty-50
Another.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/super-size-50bps-cut-be-careful-what-you-wish
Fiscal
Policy
Government spending and inflation.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2024/09/17/money-not-spending-causes-inflation
Inflation
No time for a victory lap on inflation (must
read).
Recession
One indicator of the probability of recession.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/09/triple-top-pattern-locking-in-for-us.html
Civil
Strife
The reinterpretation of human rights.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/ruling-elites-create-orwellian-reinterpretation-human-rights
Bottom line
Momentum versus
value investing.
Momentum
Investing Gives You An Edge, Until It Doesn't - RIA (realinvestmentadvice.com)
The conundrum of
declining yields.
https://www.capitalspectator.com/desperately-seeking-yield-17-september-2024/
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
Sunlight,
clouds and climate.
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