Friday, September 27, 2024

The Morning Call---Markets starting to discount another 50 bp rate cut

 

The Morning Call

 

9/27/24

 

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-gold-crypto-surge-ahead-pce

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

August personal income was up 0.2% versus predictions of +0.4%; August personal spending was up 0.2% versus +0.3%.

 

The August PCE price indicator was up 0.1%, in line.

 

                          August pending home sales rose 0.6% versus consensus of +0.3%.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/09/nar-pending-home-sales-increase-06-in.html

 

The September Kansas City Fed manufacturing index came in at -18 versus expectations of +9.

 

                        International

 

The July Japanese leading economic indicators were 109.3 versus    estimates of 109.5; the September YoY core CPI was up 2.0%, in line.

 

August Chinese YoY, year to date industrial profits were up 0.5% versus projections of +3.5%.

 

The September German unemployment rate was 6.0%, in line.

 

The September EU economic sentiment index was 96.2 versus forecasts of 96.6; the September industrial sentiment index was -10.9 versus -9.8; the September services sentiment index was +6.7 versus +5.6; the September consumer confidence index was -12.9, in line.

 

                        Other

                       

                          A breakdown of the new home sales data.

                          https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/09/us-new-home-market-muted-in-august-2024.html

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Markets starting to discount another 50 bp rate cut.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/markets-lean-into-another-%c2%bd-point-rate-cut-by-the-fed/

 

              Fed’s rate cut is leading to increased borrowing/spending by small businesses.

              https://www.wsj.com/business/entrepreneurship/fed-interest-rate-cut-small-business-spending-abfed941?mod=business_lead_pos2

 

            Recession

 

              This recession indicator shows a low risk over the next several months.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/soft-or-hard-landing-why-chaos-recession-misunderstood

 

            Civil Strife

 

I am not sure of what to make of this author’s most dire predictions; but we do know that (1) there are lots of undocumented people in this country and (2) they include criminal gangs from Mexico, Venezuela and Cuba. We just don’t know (yet) whether they include terrorist.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/stage-being-set-greatest-period-chaos-us-history

 

            Tariffs

 

              The case for tariffs----NOT.

              https://www.wsj.com/opinion/free-trade-trump-tariffs-tax-china-manufacturing-7715ecec?mod=letterstoeditor_article_pos8

 

            China

 

              Goldman thinks that there is more stimulus to come.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/chinas-bazooka-moment-arrives-here-are-3-most-important-message-xis-shock-and-awe-politburo

 

     Bottom line

 

            The accounting behind the new price highs.

            https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/the-new-record-high-for-markets-is-not-a-sugar-high/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            How to avoid financial scams.

            https://humbledollar.com/2024/09/stay-safe-out-there/

 

 

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