The Morning Call---Is Fed policy really restrictive?

 

The Morning Call

 

9/17/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bitcoin-big-tech-battered-bonds-black-gold-bid-rate-cut-expectations-soar

 

            Year-end melt up.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/year-end-melt

 

            Downside dollar risks continue to build.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/significant-dollar-downside-risks-continue-build

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

August retail sales were up 0.1% versus predictions of -0.2%; ex autos, they were up 0.1% versus +0.2%.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-retail-sales-better-expected-thanks-non-store-retailers

 

                        International

 

The September EU economic sentiment index came in at 9.3 versus forecasts of 16.3; the September German economic sentiment index was 3.6 versus 17.0; the September German current conditions index was -84.5 versus -80.0.

 

                        Other

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Is Fed policy really restrictive?

              https://www.apolloacademy.com/is-monetary-policy-restrictive/

 

Shifts in the dot plot should set the tone for the Markets. Note the author’s assertion that a cut in rates is a positive for the equity market. However, much of the basis for that is that stock prices are up preceding the rate cut. Well, we are highly likely to get a rate cut on Wednesday. So, that is old news. The issue is what happens after the rate cut; and as I have been pointing out, the record is not so upbeat.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2024/09/16/shifts-in-feds-dot-plot-set-markets-tone

 

            Recession

 

              Mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures.

              https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/09/q2-update-delinquencies-foreclosures.html

 

            Tariffs

 

              When tariffs last bloomed.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/09/manufacturing-when-tariffs-last-bloomed

 

            Civil Strife

 

              Revolt of the public.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2024/09/16/revolt-of-the-public

 

    Bottom line

 

            From Howard Marks: how to think about risk.

            https://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2024/09/13/how-to-think-about-risk-howard-marks-s-comprehensive-guide/

 

            How sectors perform after the first rate cut.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/how-do-sectors-perform-after-first-interest-rate-cut

 

            Investors move into Coca Cola and Colgate as recession fears grow.

            https://www.ft.com/content/c77e94a9-2dc0-4dad-bb1c-8db957f88640

 

            Oil tumbles as fear of recession grows.

            https://www.ft.com/content/b07739e3-a758-46ed-a457-3356d5776178

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Mastercard (NYSE:MA) declares $0.66/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Quote of the day.

            https://cafehayek.com/2024/09/quotation-of-the-day-4767.html

 

            How the Virgin Mary became the world’s most powerful woman.

            How the Virgin Mary Became the World’s Most Powerful Woman (nationalgeographic.com)

           

 

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