The Morning Call
9/6/24
The
Market
Technical
Thursday in the
charts.
Note: the S&P
closed right on its 50 DMA. Follow through.
Ten more charts to
keep you from getting too bearish.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/10-charts-keep-us-getting-too-bearish
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
August nonfarm payrolls
were up 142,000 versus estimates of 160,000; the
August
unemployment rate was 4.2%, in line. (this link mistakenly headlines June payrolls
not the correct August payrolls).
Weekly initial
jobless claims totaled 227,000 versus expectations of 230,000.
Q2 nonfarm
productivity increased 2.5% versus forecasts of +2.4%; unit labor costs were up 0.4% versus
+0.8%.
The August ADP
private payrolls report showed job increases of 99,000 versus predictions of
145,000.
The August services
PMI came in at 55.7 versus consensus of 55.2; the August composite PMI was 54.6
versus 54.1.
The August nonmanufacturing
index was 51.5 versus projections of 51.1.
International
July Japanese
household spending fell 1.7% versus estimates of -0.2%; the July preliminary
leading economic indicators reading was 109.5 versus 109.4.
July German
factory orders rose 2.9% versus expectations of -1.5%; the July trade balance
was +E16.8 billion versus +E21.0 billion; July industrial production was down
2.4% versus +0.3%.
Q2 EU (3rd
est.) GDP growth was +0.6%, in line; Q2 final employment change was +0.2%, also
in line; July retail sales were up 0.1%, also in line.
The August EU construction
PMI was 41.4 versus expectations of 42.0; the August German construction PMI
was 38.9 versus 39.8; the August UK construction PMI was 53.6 versus 54.9.
August UK YoY auto
sales fell 1.3% versus forecasts of +2.0%.
Other
9/5 summary
https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-5-september-2024/#more-22762
Problems at Bureau
of Labor Statistics.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/05/business/economy/bls-economic-data-jobs-report-cpi.html
Fiscal
Policy
The likely consequences of Trump’s proposed
economic platform.
https://www.aei.org/economics/the-economic-consequences-of-a-second-trump-presidency/
But he does have at least one good economic
idea.
Recession
Is the labor market normalizing?
https://wolfstreet.com/2024/09/04/is-the-labor-market-normalizing-what-even-is-normal/
Civil
Strife
Venezuelan and Cuban gangs infiltrating Permian
oil fields.
Should ‘unfettered’ free speech be banned?
Geopolitics
When monetary and fiscal policy are joined at
the hip.
Bottom line
August dividends
by the numbers.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/09/dividends-by-numbers-in-august-2024.html
Goldman issues dollar
crash warning.
Why you shouldn’t
freak out about the yield curve uninverting (but you shouldn’t ignore it either).
https://sherwood.news/markets/yield-curve-recession-indicator-uninverting-meaning/
Focus more on the data and less on the shape of the yield curve.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/what-happens-after-yield-curve-uninverts
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.
No comments:
Post a Comment