The Morning Call--Did the Fed make a mistake?

 

The Morning Call

 

9/25/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/gold-surges-new-record-high-soft-data-slump-stocks-bonds-dumpnpump

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications were up 11% while purchase applications were up 1%.

 

                          Month to date retail chain store sales grew slower than in the prior week.

 

The July Case Shiller home price index was flat with June versus forecasts of +0.4%.

https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/case-shiller-national-house-price-4e7

 

September consumer confidence came in at 98.7 versus expectations of 103.8.

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/us-consumer-confidence-plunges-most-3-years-labor-market-weakens-significantly

 

The September Richmond Fed manufacturing index was -21 versus consensus of -17.

           

                        International

 

                        Other

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Did the Fed just make a mistake?

              https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-did-the-fed-just-make-a-mistake/?src=news

 

              This author thinks he has the answer.

              https://scottsumner.substack.com/p/sahms-rule-mini-recessions-and-american?utm_source=post-email-title

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Another moronic proposal from Trump.

              https://www.wsj.com/opinion/donald-trump-credit-card-interest-cap-10-percent-new-york-rally-4f0dd47b?mod=opinion_lead_pos3

 

            Inflation

 

              Flash PMI’s show rising inflation.

              https://wolfstreet.com/2024/09/23/days-after-rate-cut-sps-flash-pmi-sees-rising-inflation-and-exhorts-the-fed-to-move-cautiously-with-further-rate-cuts/

 

            Recession

 

            The accuracy of recession indicators.

            https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/09/disciplining-the-debate-recession-indicator-aurocs

 

     Bottom line

 

            China stimulus institutes increasingly friendly regime for equities.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/china-stimulus-ignites-increasingly-friendly-regime-stocks

 

            An interview with Jeffery Gundlach.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2024/09/24/doublelines-jeff-gundlach-fed-gold-and-private-credit

 

            Treasury market liquidity: fine but fragile.

            https://www.ft.com/content/53bbf63b-e9cb-483a-8a75-74b6ab5a9780

 

            Short term investing is a long shot.

            https://behaviouralinvestment.com/2024/09/24/short-term-investing-is-a-long-shot/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

What I am reading today

 

            The degradation of America’s liberal education.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/political/city-journal-delves-crisis-liberal-education

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.