Wednesday, April 13, 2022

The Morning Call---The Fed is dancing with a new partner

 

The Morning Call

 

4/13/22

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds-bullion-black-gold-soar-cpi-brainard-pumpndump-stocks

 

            Retail flows turned negative.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/retail-flows-turn-negative-last-market-bull-capitulates

 

            More on the yield curve inversion.

            https://alhambrapartners.com/2022/04/10/weekly-market-pulse-what-yield-curve-inversion/

 

            Treasuries surge threatens bond bull market.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-12/treasury-yield-surge-to-threaten-bull-run-s-last-resistance-line?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications declined 1.3% while purchase applications rose 1.4%.

 

Month to date retail chain store sales grew less rapidly than in the prior week.

 

                          The March budget deficit was $193 billion versus forecasts of $191 billion.

 

March PPI rose 1.4% versus consensus of 1.1%; core PPI was +1.0% versus +0.5% (remember that PPI anticipates CPI).

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/producer-prices-soar-record-pace-pipeline-suggests-peak-inflation-far

 

                        International

 

February Japanese machinery orders fell 9.7% versus expectations of -1.5%.

 

The March Chinese trade balance was +$47.3 billion versus predictions of +$22.4 billion.

 

March UK CPI was +1.1% versus estimate of +0.7%; core CPI was +0.9% versus +0.5%.

 

                        Other

 

            Inflation

 

              Inflation in rising globally.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/12/business/global-inflation.html

 

              The Fed is dancing with a new partner.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/inflation-fed-new-dance-partner-contend

 

            Recession

 

              The prospects of recession.

              https://www.ft.com/content/c8c859ca-31d7-48b4-b944-a2af4bd46d36

 

     Bottom line

 

            Planning for the worse case.

            https://americanconsequences.com/kim-iskyan-why-you-need-a-plan-z/

 

            Take the 2 ½% and run.

            https://thereformedbroker.com/2022/04/12/take-that-two-and-a-half-percent-and-run/

 

The March Fund Managers Survey showed growing pessimism, but no one is selling.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/mood-wall-street-apocalyptic-yet-nobody-wants-sell-heres-why

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

BlackRock press release (NYSE:BLK): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $9.52 beats by $0.65.

Revenue of $4.7B (+6.8% Y/Y) misses by $60M.

 

Fastenal press release (NASDAQ:FAST): Q1 GAAP EPS of $0.47 beats by $0.02.

Revenue of $1.7B (+20.3% Y/Y) beats by $10M.

 

Fastenal (NASDAQ:FAST) declares $0.31/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

What I am reading today

 

            Company plans to release 2.4 billion genetically altered mosquitoes.

            https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/why-the-us-plans-to-release-24-billion-genetically-modified-mosquitoes-180979833/

 

 

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