The Morning Call--Commodity trading risks soar

 

The Morning Call

 

4/21/22

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tech-wrecks-bond-bid-sparks-major-curve-flattening

 

            More analysis on an inverted yield curve.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2022/04/better-ways-to-sort-out-what-us.html#.YmApYejMKUk

 

            Positive US real yields rip up global markets’ playbook.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-20/how-positive-u-s-real-yields-can-rip-through-global-markets?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            Commodity trading risks soar (must read).

            https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/wall-streets-commodity-trading-risk-soars-confirms-volatility-trap-doom-loop

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Weekly jobless claims totaled 184,000 versus estimates of 180,000.

 

                          March existing home sales fell 2.7% versus forecast of -2.0%.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/04/20/existing-home-sales-down-2-7-in-march

                    

  The April Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index was reported at 17.6   versus projections of 21.0.

 

The Fed released its latest Beige Book which showed moderate economic growth, rising inflation but some early signs of demand destruction.

                                  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/beige-book-finds-economy-growing-moderate-pace-spots-first-instances-demand-destruction

 

                        International

 

                          March EU CPI came in at +2.4% versus expectations of +2.5%.

 

                        Other

 

                          Latest IMF global economic forecasts.

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2022/04/imf-weo-forecasts

 

            Inflation

 

              Corn prices hit new highs.

              https://www.linkedin.com/in/edward-yardeni/recent-activity/

 

              US mortgage rates hit 12 year high.

              https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/us-mortgage-interest-rates-reach-12-year-high-demand-falters-2022-04-20/

 

            Recession

 

              When will demand destruction overpower growth?

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/when-will-demand-destruction-overpower-growth/#more-17841

 

              Speaking of which.

              https://think.ing.com/snaps/the-commodities-feed-growth-concerns-weigh-on-oil

 

     Bottom line

 

            Deutsche Bank joins the bears.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/first-bank-forecast-us-recession-now-warns-prepare-hard-landing

 

            The value of holding (or not) commodities during a period of stagflation.

            https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1088688/what-if-stagflation-arrives

 

            A low unemployment rate is bearish for stocks.

            https://compoundadvisors.com/2022/is-a-low-unemployment-rate-bullish-for-stocks

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

AT&T press release (NYSE:T): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.77 beats by $0.08.

Revenue of $38.1B (-13.2% Y/Y) misses by $190M.

 

What I am reading today

 

            Capitalism and climate.

            https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/capitalism-and-climate

 

            Booze and fat.

            https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/04/beer-and-spirits-have-more-detrimental-effects-on-the-waistline-and-on-cardiovascular-disease-risk-than-red-or-white-wine.html

 

            How we make, remember and forget memories.

            https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/human-memory?loggedin=true

               

                How everyone got so lonely.

            https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2022/04/11/how-everyone-got-so-lonely-laura-kipnis-noreena-hertz

 

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