Tuesday, April 12, 2022

The Morning Call--It doesn't matter what the Fed says today, what matters is what it does when the s**t hits the fan

 

The Morning Call

 

4/12/22

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds-bitcoin-big-tech-battered-us-misery-reaches-40-year-highs

 

            Setting up for a bounce?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/setup

 

            Better measures of the yield curve.

            https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2022/04/better-measures-of-yield-curve.html

 

            More analysis.

            https://econbrowser.com/archives/2022/04/10yr-3mo-term-spreads-and-probit-model-recession-forecasts

           

            The slump in Treasury prices ignites global bond sell off.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-11/treasury-10-year-yield-rises-to-2-75-for-first-time-since-2019-l1u3898r?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

March consumer inflation expectations was 6.6% versus estimates of +6.2%.

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/fed-losing-control-gloom-spreads-consumer-inflation-expectations-soar-mindblowing-66

 

The March small business optimism index came in at 93.2 versus predictions of 90.0.

 

                          March CPI rose 1.2%, in line; core CPI was up 0.3% versus +0.5%.

 

                        International

 

The February UK unemployment rate was 3.8%, in  line; February average earnings were up 5.4%, also in line.

 

March Japanese PPI was reported up 0.8% versus consensus of +0.9%; March German PPI was +2.5%, in line.

 

The April EU economic sentiment index was -43 versus projections of -28; the April German economic sentiment index was -41 versus -48; the April German current conditions index was -30.5 versus -35.0.

 

                        Other

 

                          Mortgage rates the highest since 2007.

                          https://finance.yahoo.com/news/housing-market-just-hit-level-173737330.html

 

                          Update on six high frequency economic indicators.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/04/six-high-frequency-indicators-for_11.html

 

            The Fed

 

It doesn’t matter what the Fed says today, it is what it does when the s**t hits the fan.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-scared-shtless

 

              David Stockman excoriates the Fed.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/david-stockman-coming-bond-bear-market-and-what-comes-next

 

            Recession

           

              Recession risk is rising say economists.

              https://www.wsj.com/articles/recession-risk-is-rising-economists-say-11649592002

 

     Bottom line.

 

            How do you know when it is a bubble?

            https://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2022/04/08/equity-risk-premium-forum-dont-bet-against-a-bubble/

 

            When stock and bond performance is correlated.

            https://evergreengavekal.com/ride-away-right-away/

 

            The latest from John Mauldin.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2022/04/08/other-possibilities

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

                        America’s narcissism epidemic.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/what-are-effects-americas-narcissism-epidemic

 

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