The Morning Call--What is the yield curve signaling?

 

The Morning Call

 

4/7/22

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/feds-volcker-moment-slams-bonds-stocks-crypto-crude

 

Note: the S&P is now in the midst of challenges of both its 100 DMA  and 200 DMA but has a long way to go to the lower boundary of its short term trading range (~4182).

 

            The NASDAQ and real yields.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/culzvlqrwq

 

            Why the IPO market is shrinking.

            https://blog.evergreengavekal.com/and-just-like-that/

 

            What is the yield curve signaling?

            https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/04/lawler-what-is-yield-curve-signaling.html

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Weekly jobless claims totaled 166,000 versus forecasts of 200,000.

 

                        International

 

The preliminary February Japanese leading economic indicators came in at 100.9 versus consensus of 102.8.

 

February German industrial production was up 0.2% versus projections of 0.0%.

 

February EU retail sales rose 0.3% versus estimates of +0.6%.

 

                        Other

 

                          Global supply chain risk and resilience.

                          https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/04/global-supply-chain-risk-and-resilience.html

 

                          30 year mortgage rates hit 5%.

                          https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/05/30-year-fixed-mortgage-crosses-5percent-for-the-first-time-since-2013.html

 

                          Rents increasing sharply YoY.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/04/rents-still-increasing-sharply-year.html

 

            The Fed

 

The minutes from the latest FOMC meeting were released  yesterday and echoed Lael Brainard’s comments on Tuesday, i.e., more hawkish that has been expected (faster QT and multiple 50 bp rate hikes).

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-minutes-signal-bigger-faster-expected-qt-multiple-50bps-hikes

 

              Ed Yardini on Lael Brainard’s speech.

              https://www.linkedin.com/in/edward-yardeni/recent-activity/

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              These economists were dead wrong on inflation.

              https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3259197-nobel-economists-were-dead-wrong-on-inflation-dont-expect-an-apology/

 

              Biden’s new wealth tax proposal.

              https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2022/04/biden-will-still-respect-you-in-the-morning.php

           

            Recession

 

              Deutschebank expects a recession in the US in late 2023 and in the EU in 2024.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2022/04/recession-in-2023

 

     Bottom line

 

            March and Q1 dividends by the numbers.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2022/04/dividends-by-numbers-in-march-2022-and.html#.Yk3O1-jMKUk

 

            March update on valuations.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/04/06/the-q-ratio-and-market-valuation-march-update

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/04/05/regression-to-trend-156-above-trend-in-march

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Automatic Data Processing (NASDAQ:ADP) declares $1.04/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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