Tuesday, April 19, 2022

The Morning Call--Forget a soft landing

 

The Morning Call

 

4/19/22

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/commodities-soar-bonds-stocks-bitcoin-rollercoaster-wildly

 

            The VIX is not buying lower stock prices.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/cwpbaoccst

 

            What happens when investors sentiment is low.

            https://allstarcharts.com/fewest-bulls-since-1992/

 

            Sentiment versus spending.

            https://ritholtz.com/2022/04/sentiment-versus-spending/

 

            Margin debt down in March.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/04/18/margin-debt-down-4-3-in-march

 

            More analysis of an inverted yield curve.

            https://compoundadvisors.com/2022/the-inverted-yield-curve-omen

 

            Corporate credit still cheap.

            https://www.axios.com/corporate-borrowing-costs-federal-reserve-b452cb11-9168-437c-977c-6e6befeada9d.html

 

            The price of credit protection remains elevated.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/cwvkpv-das

 

            Ed Yardini on the dollar and gold.

            https://www.linkedin.com/in/edward-yardeni/recent-activity/

 

The Japanese yen continues to crash.

https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/crashing

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

March housing starts were up 0.3% versus expectations of -2.3%; building permits were up 0.4% versus -3.0%.

 

                          The April housing index was 77, in line.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/04/nahb-builder-confidence-decreased-to-77.html

 

                        International

 

Final February Japanese industrial production was up 2.0% versus estimates of +0.1%.

 

                        Other

 

                          Update on big four economic indicators.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/04/15/the-big-four-industrial-production-up-0-9-in-march

 

                          Ukraine was deepened debt problems of developing countries.

                          https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-war-deepens-debt-woes-across-developing-world-11650187803

 

                          World Bank cuts global growth outlook

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/stagflation-fears-soar-world-bank-slashes-global-growth-outlook

 

                          Forget about a soft landing.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/forget-about-soft-landing-whats-shape-hard-landing

 

            The coronavirus

 

              China’s lockdown’s impact on the global economy.

              https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/17/economy/stocks-week-ahead/index.html

 

     Bottom line

 

            Portfolio diversification is harder than it used to be.

            https://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2022/04/11/portfolio-diversification-harder-than-it-used-to-be/

 

            Risk management.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2022/04/18/wisdom-of-crowds-isnt-always-wise-to-follow

           

            War and inflation impacting corporate profits negatively.

            https://www.ft.com/content/e347aae3-8098-4f82-a97a-28d17769fa3e

 

            Morgan Stanley: inflation is no longer a plus for earnings/stocks.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/mike-wilson-inflation-no-longer-positive-earnings-growth-or-stocks

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Another article on one of my pet peeves (wealth inequality).

            https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/couple-thoughts-big-numbers

 

 

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