The Morning Call--The coming QT

 

The Morning Call

 

4/20/22

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bitcoin-big-tech-bounce-bullard-banter-batters-bonds-bullion

 

            How high do real yields go?

            https://www.ft.com/content/300de65b-e3de-463b-975f-9d25f1c28783

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications declined 5.0% while purchase applications were down 3.0%.

 

Month to date retail chain store sales grew more rapidly than in the prior week.

 

                        International

 

The February EU trade balance was -E7.6 billion versus consensus of -E29 billion; February industrial production was up 0.7%, in line.

 

March German PPI came in at 4.9% versus expectations of 2.6%.

 

The March Japanese trade balance was -Y412.4 billion versus estimates of -Y100.8 billion.

 

                        Other

 

            The Fed

 

              The coming QT (quantitative tightening).

              https://www.reuters.com/business/calling-time-qe-central-banks-prep-synchronized-asset-cull-2022-04-19/

 

              The Fed has never successfully fixed a problem like the present one.

              https://www.wsj.com/articles/inflation-jobs-fed-recession-economy-11650294297

 

            Inflation

 

              The price of electricity is going up.

              https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/04/outdated-energy-grid-poses-existential-threat-to-the-renewable-revolution.html

 

              The latest stats on gasoline prices.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/04/19/weekly-gasoline-prices-wtic-back-up

 

              Message to the Fed on home prices.

              https://www.linkedin.com/in/edward-yardeni/recent-activity/

           

              On the personal level, you need think about inflation differently.

              https://ofdollarsanddata.com/youve-been-thinking-about-inflation-all-wrong/

 

              EU set to impose full embargo on Russian oil.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/full-embargo-russian-oil-would-send-brent-185bbl-jpmorgan

 

     Bottom line

 

            Time to get contrarian?

            https://alhambrapartners.com/2022/04/17/weekly-market-pulse-time-to-get-contrarian/

 

            Is the recession already priced in?

            https://allstarcharts.com/recession-22/

 

            For the bulls.

            https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/18/market-will-break-out-of-slump-due-to-peaking-inflation-evercore-isi.html

 

     Investor Alert

 

In my quarterly review of Calavo Growers, it failed to meet the minimum financial criteria for inclusion in my Universe. Accordingly, it is being removed and the one half position held by the Dividend Growth Portfolio will be sold at the open. I know that this is a recent purchase; however, I try as best I can to adhere to my Buy/Sell Discipline that I have developed over the years. This instance is not an exception.

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Johnson & Johnson press release (NYSE:JNJ): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.67 beats by $0.10.

Revenue of $23.4B (+4.8% Y/Y) misses by $210M.

 

Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) declares $1.13/share quarterly dividend, 6.6% increase from prior dividend of $1.06.

 

What I am reading today

 

           

                        Prioritization.

            https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/prioritization

 

            50 cognitive biases.

            https://ritholtz.com/2022/04/50-cognitive-biases/

 

 

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