Tuesday, April 5, 2022

The Morning Call---More analysis on the odds of recession

 

The Morning Call

 

4/5/22

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bullion-big-tech-black-gold-bid-bitcoin-battered-bond-curve-steepens

 

            Who do you trust?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/ctkwjqn18g

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Month to date retail chain store sales grew faster than in the prior week.

 

February factory orders fell 0.5%, in line; ex transportation, they were up 0.4% versus -0.3%.

 

The February trade balance was -$89.2 billion versus estimates of -$88.5 billion.

 

                        International

 

February Japanese household spending declined 2.8% versus expectations of -1.5%; the final March services PMI was 49.4 versus 48.7; the final March composite PMI was 50.3 versus 49.3.

 

The final March German services PMI was 56.1 versus projections of 55.0; the final March German composite PMI was 55.1 versus 54.6; the final March EU services PMI was 55.6 versus 54.8; the final March EU composite PMI was 54.9 versus 54.5.

 

The final March UK services PMI was 62.6 versus consensus of 61.0; the final March UK composite PMI was 60.9 versus 59.7; March YoY auto sales fell 14.3% versus +13.7%.

 

                        Other

 

                          Update on big four economic indicators.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/04/04/the-big-four-economic-indicators-march-employment

 

                          Global manufacturing PMI at 18 month low.

                          https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/pmi-at-18month-low-as-manufacturing-disrupted-by-ukraine-war-and-omicron-wave-Apr22.html

 

                          Recoil from Russian gas is scrambling world markets.

                          https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/04/business/russia-europe-natural-gas.html

 

                          Framing lumber prices down from recent highs.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/04/update-framing-lumber-prices-down-from.html

 

                          Housing affordability tightest in 15 years.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/04/black-knight-mortgage-monitor-for.html

 

                          Goldman looks at Q2.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-we-enter-quarter-set-glaring-disjunctions

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              The Club for Growth on Biden’s new budget.

              https://www.clubforgrowth.org/club-for-growth-statement-on-bidens-bankrupt-budget/

 

            Recession

 

              More on the 2s10s yield spread as a recession indicator.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2022/04/2s10s-around-the-world

 

In yesterday’s Morning Call, I linked to a study analyzing the magnitude of yield curve inversion to the probability of recession. This article approaches the odds of recession being determined by how many yield curves are inverting.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2022/04/04/yield-curve-inversions-medias-denial-of-history

 

                  Retail, freight and semis on verge of recession.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/retail-freight-and-now-semis-all-verge-recession

 

 

     Bottom line

 

            Five things to know about investing.

            https://www.dimensional.com/us-en/insights/five-things-i-know-about-investing

 

            The latest from Morgan Stanley.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/now-its-about-ice-mike-wilson-says-bear-market-rally-over

 

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Who gets punished when self-driving cars kill someone?

            https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/whos-afraid-of-self-driving-cars

 

 

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