The Morning Call
4/5/22
The
Market
Technical
Monday
in the charts.
Who do you trust?
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/ctkwjqn18g
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Month to date retail chain store sales grew
faster than in the prior week.
February factory
orders fell 0.5%, in line; ex transportation, they were up 0.4% versus -0.3%.
The February trade
balance was -$89.2 billion versus estimates of -$88.5 billion.
International
February Japanese
household spending declined 2.8% versus expectations of -1.5%; the final March services
PMI was 49.4 versus 48.7; the final March composite PMI was 50.3 versus 49.3.
The final March
German services PMI was 56.1 versus projections of 55.0; the final March German
composite PMI was 55.1 versus 54.6; the final March EU services PMI was 55.6
versus 54.8; the final March EU composite PMI was 54.9 versus 54.5.
The final March UK
services PMI was 62.6 versus consensus of 61.0; the final March UK composite
PMI was 60.9 versus 59.7; March YoY auto sales fell 14.3% versus +13.7%.
Other
Update on big four economic indicators.
Global manufacturing PMI at 18 month low.
Recoil from Russian gas is scrambling world
markets.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/04/business/russia-europe-natural-gas.html
Framing lumber prices down from recent highs.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/04/update-framing-lumber-prices-down-from.html
Housing affordability tightest in 15 years.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/04/black-knight-mortgage-monitor-for.html
Goldman looks at Q2.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-we-enter-quarter-set-glaring-disjunctions
Fiscal
Policy
The Club for Growth on Biden’s new budget.
https://www.clubforgrowth.org/club-for-growth-statement-on-bidens-bankrupt-budget/
Recession
More on the 2s10s yield spread as a recession
indicator.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2022/04/2s10s-around-the-world
In yesterday’s
Morning Call, I linked to a study analyzing the magnitude of yield curve inversion
to the probability of recession. This article approaches the odds of recession
being determined by how many yield curves are inverting.
Retail,
freight and semis on verge of recession.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/retail-freight-and-now-semis-all-verge-recession
Bottom
line
Five things to
know about investing.
https://www.dimensional.com/us-en/insights/five-things-i-know-about-investing
The
latest from Morgan Stanley.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/now-its-about-ice-mike-wilson-says-bear-market-rally-over
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
Who
gets punished when self-driving cars kill someone?
https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/whos-afraid-of-self-driving-cars
Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
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