The Morning Call
4/1/22
The
Market
Technical
Thursday in the
charts.
A technical look
into Q2.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/awaiting
Optimism from the Traders
Almanac.
https://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/680103372292030464/recession-fight-club
Counterpoint.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/do-you-feel-lucky-8-reasons-question-markets-recent-rip
The 2s10s inverts
for the second time in three days.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/yield-curve-inverts-what-happens-next
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
The March Chicago PMI came in at 62.9 versus
expectations of 57.0.
March nonfarm
payrolls increased 431,000 versus forecasts of 490,000; the unemployment rate
was 3.6% versus 3.7%.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/march-payrolls-miss-fewest-jobs-added-september-wages-come-hot
International
The Q1 Japanese
large manufacturers index was reported at 14 versus estimates of 12; the Q1
small manufacturers index was -4 versus -7; the Q1 nonmanufacturers index was 9
versus 5; Q1 all industry cap ex index was 2.2 versus 7.9; the March manufacturing
PMI was 54.1 versus 53.2.
The March German manufacturing
PMI was 56.9 versus projections of 57.0; the March UK manufacturing PMI was
55.2 versus 55.5; the March EU manufacturing PMI was 56.5 versus 57.0.
March EU CPI was
+2.5% versus consensus of +1.9%.
Other
Necessary inefficiencies.
https://rationalwalk.com/necessary-inefficiency/
Can interest rates and home prices rise at the
same time?
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/31/upshot/home-prices-mortgage-rates.html
With all the
yakking about fertilizer shortages leading to lower acreages being planted, I thought
the Department of Agriculture’s latest data on intended 2022 US plantings was
interesting: soybeans---90.9 million bushels
versus 87.6 million in 2021; corn---89.5 million bushels versus 91.0 million in
2021; wheat---47.3 million bushels versus 46.3 million in 2021.
Despite personal
income being up in February, disposable per capita income was down.
This is a discussion
about whether the Russian sanctions will ultimately lead to a weakening of the
dollar’s position as the global reserve currency.
https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-106-the-new-buttresses?s=r
Fiscal
Policy
The lack of logic in the Robin Hood Tax.
https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/lme-nickel-energy-companies-and-the-ftt
Senator Warren
wants a windfall profits tax on oil. How did that work out for Jimmy Carter?
https://www.linkedin.com/in/edward-yardeni/recent-activity/
Biden taps the strategic oil reserves.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/oil-slides-biden-admin-mulls-huge-spr-release-again
Geopolitics
Thoughts on Putin’s strategy.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/rickards-ive-never-heard-so-many-lies
The
coronavirus
The NIH deleted info from the Wuhan lab on coronavirus
genetic sequencing.
Bottom line.
Bill Miller’s
biggest loss.
https://novelinvestor.com/bill-millers-biggest-loss/
History shows war
shocks have a modest effect on the Market.
https://ritholtz.com/2022/03/history-shows-war-shocks-have-a-modest-impact-on-equities/
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
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