The Morning Call
8/20/26
The
Market
Technical
Wednesday in the
charts.
Wednesday in the
technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
Silver is sitting
on a powder keg.
Thursday morning
setup: US futures slide and are trading at session lows, as
bond yields surge after yesterday’s Treasury announcement, having now erased
the entire post buyback-boost move; yields are 4-5bps higher as the curve bear
steepens sharply with the 10Y yield now at 4.69%, above where it was before the
Treasury's press release yesterday, driven by a surge in Brent above $94 after
Trump vowed to unleash an "Economic D-Day" on
Iran's economy. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are down 0.2% and Nasdaq
futures slide 0.3%. Pre-mkt, Memory / Semis are leading the Tech tape
after a stronger APAC Tech session; Mag7 / Software are lagging. Cyclicals are
seeing broad-based strength. Defensives are lagging with HC seeing
profit-taking. Momentum continuing to unwind has triggered reversals lower from
pre-mkt strength, over the past few sessions. This appears to be quant /
systematic rather than discretionary players with Goldman pointing to the biggest
systematic one-day loss since 2023. Retail activity remains muted. USD
is mixed, erasing much of its earlier weakness as yields surge. Commodities are
led by Energy as Brent moves towards $95/bbl, base metals outperform precious,
with Ags are mixed. US economic data calendar includes weekly jobless claims,
the Philadelphia Fed business outlook and leading index. Fed speakers scheduled
for the session include San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and St. Louis Fed
President Alberto Musalem.
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 206,000
versus consensus 210,000.
The
August Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index came in at 47.4 versus predictions
of 25.
International
The June
YoY UK industrial trends orders index was -25 versus estimates of -40.
The July Japanese
trade balance was -Y634.5 billion versus expectations of -Y680 billion.
July
German PPI was up 1.1% versus forecasts of +0.7%.
Other
The view from 30,000 feet.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/08/the-mini-recession-of-2025-vs-ai-wealth.html
Iran
Overnight news.
Monetary
Policy
Time for the real Kevin Warsh to stand up.
https://stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/go-to-the-mountains-come-down-from
FOMC minutes tilted hawkish.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-40
Fiscal
Policy
QE
by any other name….
The Wall Street experts opinion (notwithstanding
the investor reaction).
Inflation
One of the historically major sources of
inflation is benign.
https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/d114d838-ae41-4321-9ddc-7d11a218e301
AI
The limitations of large language models.
https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/beyond-language-models
Investing
A cheap way to
protect yourself from a Market selloff.
Summary:
As major U.S. equity indexes continue to seesaw, this could represent an
opportunity for anxious investors looking to pick up some portfolio protection
on the cheap. Investors might consider buying put options on the S&P 500
index to help protect their portfolios from a sharp selloff. They
also could purchase call options on the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), which
tends to rise when markets turn rocky.
In praise of a
price (or any other investment) discipline.
https://www.safalniveshak.com/freedom-is-not-an-open-field/
Forget the bond
rout, investors are in a party mode.
https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/25cbc2fc-3136-4189-a8fd-c49eda4717f3
What BDC markets
are signaling about private credit valuations.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
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