The Morning Call
8/27/26
The
Market
Technical
Wednesday in the
charts.
Wednesday in the
technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
This case for
buying gold----or not.
https://talkmarkets.com/article/deutsche-bank-just-made-a-fresh-case-for-buying-gold-1787762550
The charts aren’t
buying sell America (i.e., the dollar).
The technical setup just improved.
Thursday morning
setup: Futures are higher led by Tech as NVDA earnings boost the tape. As of
8:00am ET, S&P futures are 0.5% higher while Nasdaq futures jump 1.1% led
by NVDA which is +7.4% in pre-market trading following an unprecedented
forecast of 70% revenue growth in 2028, which is boosting Semis (+3%), incl
MRVL +5.2% into their print tonight. NVDA helped the market climb a significant
wall of worry and is not poised to resume it march higher. Memory is +3.6%,
Software is +2.3%, Korea +2.1%, and Low/Unprofitable Tech +1.2% points to a
broad-based Tech rally. Yet Only 2 of 7 Mag7 names are higher, NVDA and TSLA.
Outside of Tech, most sectors are trading lower ex-Industrials / Utils which
are benefiting from a reboot of the AI trade. Our Retail flows remain
materially off their highs with behavior shifting from ETFs to single stocks;
Mag7 / NVDA most bought, MRNA most sold with gold seeing strong inflows. Bond
yields are +1-2bp with USD flat. Cmdtys are mostly lower dragged by Energy and
Base Metals; Precious are mixed with gold flat and silver higher. Today’s macro
data calendar includes July advance goods trade balance, weekly jobless
claims and July inventories (8:30 a.m.) and August Kansas City Fed manufacturing
activity (11 a.m.). Fed speaker slate includes Cleveland Fed’s Beth Hammack on
CBNC at 10 a.m. and Fox Business at 1 p.m.
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly jobless claims totaled 203,000 versus
estimates of 208,000.
International
July Chinese (YTD)
YoY industrial profits rose 17.6% versus predictions of +16.0%.
The September
German consumer confidence index came in at -26.6 versus consensus of -29.2.
Other
More detail on new home sales.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2026/08/new-home-sales-and-prices-trending.html
More detail on yesterday’s statistical barrage.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/08/incomes-remain-recessionary-and.html
Iran
The latest (and probably equally unreliable)
news.
Summary: Iran's military
said it reached a revenue-sharing agreement with Oman on the Strait of Hormuz. The
US is obstructing the process, causing progress to be delayed, according to the
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' spokesman Hossein Mohebbi. Iran has
cautioned that a re-opening of the strait will take more than a deal with Oman.
But apparently the
rate of passage through the Strait of Hormuz is increasing.
Fiscal
Policy
The sky doesn’t have to fall for the
national debt to be a problem.
The Bessent bounce.
Summary: Treasury
Secretary Scott Bessent’s plan to expand bond buybacks has sparked debate about
its effectiveness, but key market metrics show it’s having an impact. Since
Bessent’s announcement, Treasuries have outperformed equivalent-maturity swaps,
narrowing the 30-year spread between the two to the smallest since February. Benchmark
US yields have drifted lower after initially see-sawing in the wake of the
government’s plan to “at least double” its buybacks of longer-dated bonds.
Which keeps the pressure on Warsh.
Inflation
Inflation remains elevated.
Potential global food shock.
Tariffs
The metals’ lobby big steal.
What the heck is ‘structural excess capacity’?
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2026/08/what-the-heck-is-structural-excess-capacity
The
Financial System
Americans and their plastic.
Investing
When Wall Street
says Sell, see who is waiting to Buy.
The bull case.
https://www.ft.com/content/c96c25c1-b27c-4c08-a2ba-21821b39dd78?syn-25a6b1a6=1
Summary:
But a rise in borrowing costs does not necessarily undermine equities if driven
by an investment boom that is also lifting long-run productivity and earnings
expectations. Indeed, equity markets are pricing future returns that reflect
just that: stronger productivity, corporate earnings that can remain above
historical norms and an economy capable of breaking out of its long-run growth
trend. In effect, equity investors are making one of the biggest macroeconomic
bets ever.
The case for TIPS.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
While the focus
of this article is on trading, the larger point is that true ‘learning’ isn’t
easy.
https://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2026/08/what-is-best-way-to-learn-trading.html
CIA Director
holds covert talks in Moscow.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-air-force-c-17-makes-mysterious-visit-moscow
As a follow up.
Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.
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