The Morning Call
8/13/26
The
Market
Technical
Wednesday in the
charts.
Wednesday in the
technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
The latest from
Citadel’s desk.
The latest from Goldman’s desk.
Volatility tumbles
as investors shrug off Middle East risks.
https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/4b18f26c-196b-434e-aed8-f9a51a65e552
Thursday morning
setup: Futures are higher again, although trading in a narrow range for the
past week just below all-time highs, with Tech flat following disappointing
earnings from CSCO. As of 8:00am ET, S&P 500 futures add 0.2% while Nasdaq
futures are unchanged as Cisco shares dropped 6.4% in premarket trading
after earnings failed to impress. Elsewhere, Semis are flat, Memory is
lower, with Mag7 / Software trading up. Cyclicals and Defensives are trading
higher with weakness in Energy / Materials; AI theme remains bid. Price action
in Asia was upbeat and again characterized by bubbly tech enthusiasm just days
after the last Korean bubble popped, with benchmarks in South Korea, Japan and
Taiwan all advancing, and the Kospi re-entering a bull market, up 20% from its
late July lows. European stocks are grinding higher with the Stoxx 600 up
0.2%. Brent crude is down 1.7%, pausing its recent rally. News flow
remains light and the impasse over the Strait of Hormuz is dragging on. Weaker
energy prices are dragging US yields lower across the curve with more price
data due today via PPI metrics. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is flat as the
low vol environment in FX markets continues. USD/JPY is steady following a
report that the government is supportive of a faster BOJ hike. Spot gold is
down 0.6% and back on a $4300/oz handle. JPM says to keep an eye on the Retail
investor as the bank's flows data show an uptick from 4%-ile to 64%-ile but
with a shift away from Tech to macro themes, e.g., gold. Today's US
economic data calendar includes weekly jobless claims and July PPI
(8:30am). Fed speakers scheduled include Cleveland Fed’s Hammack (8:15am)
and Richmond Fed’s Barkin (8:40am).
As Bloomberg
notes, investors are increasingly discerning between companies already turning
the data-center boom into revenue and those where they are still being asked to
look further out. The reaction to Cisco and Cerebras suggests the next
batch of AI earnings may face a higher bar. Headline orders and exposure to the
capex boom may no longer be enough on their own, with investors likely to focus
more closely on how quickly demand converts into revenue, what it does to
margins and whether earnings can keep pace.
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 209,000
versus forecasts of 202,000.
July
PPI was flat versus expectations of up 0.2%; core PPI was up 0.2% versus +0.3%.
International
Q2 QoQ UK GDP grew
0.4%, in line; Q2 construction orders declined
18.1% versus +11.8%; June GDP was up 0.3%
versus 0.0%; June industrial production fell
0.2% versus +0.1%; the June trade balance was -L5.5 billion versus -L3.6
billion.
June EU industrial production was flat versus
estimates of -0.1%.
July Japanese PPI
came in at +0.1% versus +0.6%.
Other
Trade between US and China increased in June.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2026/08/trade-between-us-and-china-increases.html
Global oil deficit continues to rise.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/global-oil-deficit-hit-18-million-bpd-quarter-iea-forecasts
Hormuz shock manifesting itself in cracks not
crude.
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/hormuz-shock-manifesting-itself-cracks-not-crude-jefferies-says
Monetary
Policy
I recently linked
to an article outlining a major shift in the outlook from one of the premier bond
market experts in which he made a 180 degree turn from forecasting lower
interest rates/inflation to higher interest rates/inflation. Here is an analysis of his analysis.
https://talkmarkets.com/article/lacy-hunt-turns-bearish-bonds-studying-his-reversal-1786532279
Fiscal
Policy
Unchecked fiscal irresponsibility.
Inflation
An in depth look at yesterday's CPI number.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/08/july-consumer-inflation-second-gift.html
AI
Credit market signaling rising doubts about AI
buildout.
Investing
The Market is
broadening.
https://trendlabs.com/more-than-half-the-stocks-are-winning/
Back to your
regularly scheduled bull market.
https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/back-to-your-regularly-scheduled-bull-market/
But a word of
caution….
Financial markets,
oil prices and supply side risks.
Equity
diversification in an era of concentration.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/08/12/equity-diversification-era-concentration
How levered ETFs benefit
from volatility.
The best way to
sell a concentrated position.
https://ofdollarsanddata.com/the-best-way-to-sell-a-concentrated-position/
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
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When power,
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