The Morning Call---The retail sales number will the the topic du jour

 

The Morning Call

 

8/14/26

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/disinflation-deal-doubts-doubling-down-bond-yields-drop-oil-slop-tech-pops?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTIxNDE1Iiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc4NjY1MzE3MiwiZXhwIjoxNzg5MjQ1MTcyLCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.WtoZT6WXrfm_zM4vWAxDNLTuhkXQeYjmHpA5iiBsllI

 

            Thursday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            S&P futures near a critical breakout point.

            https://talkmarkets.com/article/extreme-peril-1786638737

 

            Calm on the surface, but….

https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/why-3-4-pullback-could-turn-violent?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTIxNTA4Iiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc4NjcxMTkxMSwiZXhwIjoxNzg5MzAzOTExLCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.W7zbSw0wBnC0gNY2cbczNps0x3rVWEQimlpnRRh6PDk

 

 

Friday morning set up (this was written before the retail sales surprise): Futures are fractionally higher, as they have been much of this supercharged week which pushed stocks to new all-time highs, amid quiet news flow this morning. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.1% after the index closed at a record on Thursday. Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 0.2%, with the tech benchmark set for a 1.2% gain in the week. Momentum darling Sandisk rallied almost 6% in premarket trading after surging double digits yesterday and is now up 60% from its lows less than two weeks ago;  Mag 7 stocks mostly unchanged with MSFT and META showing some modest declines as investors continued to focus on OpenAI’s plans for a Wall Street debut. Bond yields are 1-2bp higher, led by 30y. A Reuters article reported that BOJ is eyeing September rate hike and faster pace of tightening, affirming the recent hawkish bias: OIS now sees 81% probability of a September hike (vs. ~65% last Friday). Commodities are modestly higher: oil moved 0.6% higher; gold added 0.1% this morning. US economic data calendar include July retail sales (8:30am), August preliminary University of Michigan sentiment and June business inventories (10am). No Fed speakers scheduled for the session

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

July retail sales fell 0.6% versus estimates of +0.1%; ex auto, they were down 0.3% versus +0.2%.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/world-cup-hangover-triggers-retail-sales-slump-july-k-shaped-economy-waning

 

                        International

 

Q2 (2^nd est.) EU GDP growth was +0.1%; in line; the June EU trade balance was +E8.6 billion versus -E2.2 billion.

 

July German PPI came in at +0.2% versus predictions of +0.4%.

 

                        Other

 

                          The Yen bailout won’t fix Japan’s bond problem.

                          https://www.city-journal.org/article/yen-japan-us-bond-yields-debt

 

                          Inflation adjusted wages.

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2026/08/inflation-adjusted-wages-through-july

 

            Iran

 

              Iran’s dangerous mid-term strategy.

              https://www.dailysignal.com/2026/08/11/irans-dangerous-midterm-strategy/

 

              How much oil is getting through the Strait of Hormuz?

  https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-08-13/for-the-oil-market-the-strait-of-hormuz-isn-t-closed?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTc4NjY0Mzk1NiwiZXhwIjoxNzg3MjQ4NzU2LCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJUSk9UT0dSS1YyVUUwMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiJCMzFCNTRDQTI3MTE0NjAxOUQxMURCN0IxRUM4NTE2MyJ9.DPwqxG_QqCX9o3qFDfsgXf6S2vNEkIY3FeD6w-XKg7M

 

 

                        Inflation

 

              Disinflation gains traction but the bond market isn’t buying it.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/disinflation-gains-traction-but-bond-market-isnt-buying-it/

 

                          Counterpoint.

              https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/08/producer-prices-indicate-continued.html

 

 

            AI

           

              An investment theory for an AI economy.

  https://richardvigilante.substack.com/p/an-investment-theory-for-the-ai-economy-8e3?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=677554&post_id=210899903&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=67wdy&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email

 

 

              Banning open weight AI models could cost the US the AI race.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2026/08/13/banning_open-weight_ai_models_could_cost_america_the_ai_race_1199984.html

 

              AI hype is running into reality.

                          https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/12/opinion/ai-bubble-economy-crash.html?unlocked_article_code=1.5FA.Gp1S.5jBMMVRVpn-D&smid=url-share

 

              Big tech meets Milton Friedman.

              https://www.semafor.com/article/08/11/2026/big-tech-meets-milton-friedman

 

            Tariffs

 

              Trump puts 100% tariffs on drone components.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/unusual-machines-jumps-after-trump-slaps-100-drone-tariff-hard-decoupling-china

 

            The Financial System

 

              The state of the home mortgage market remains sound.

                          https://wolfstreet.com/2026/08/12/here-come-the-helocs-mortgages-housing-debt-to-income-ratio-serious-delinquencies-and-foreclosures-in-q2-2026/

 

     Investing

 

            How important is cash in your investment strategy?

            https://ritholtz.com/2026/08/lets-talk-about-cash/

 

            The Treasury market is facing a reckoning.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-30-trillion-treasury-market-is-facing-a-painful-reckoning-how-rising-yields-could-squeeze-your-portfolio-8fa9edd8?st=tAzYd5

 

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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