The Morning Call
8/11/26
The
Market
Technical
Monday in the
charts.
Monday in the
technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
Tech got washed
out.
But…
Tuesday morning
setup: US equity futures were trading near session lows with bond yields at
August highs of 4.74% and Brent rising above $90 for the first time in two
weeks when - with just hours until the market open - we had the now standard
double-whammy of well-timed "imminent deal optimism" thanks first to
the Qatar foreign ministry, followed less than an hour later by comments from
the Pakistan defense minister - a man repeatedly used by the Trump admin to
spread market-moving propaganda - which sparked instant algo buying on hopes
of, what else, an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. According to the
Pakistani, the US and Iran "are close to some agreement" and
"the situation is moving towards peace" which was sufficient to
not only push futures immediately to session highs, and just shy of all-time
highs... ... but also dump oil more than $3 and send bond yields to session lows
on what is the same song and dance the market has heard countless times before,
even as strategic and commercial oil stocks and reserves are being rapidly
depleted below operational minimum levels. As of 8:00am, S&P futures
climbed 0.2% and contracts on the Nasdaq advanced 0.4%. Ten-year Treasury
yields were little changed at 4.71%, erasing an earlier move as high as 4.76%,
as Brent crude erased gains to trade 0.4% lower at around $87 per barrel,
rising above $90 earlier. Earlier in the morning, Intel announced a $20BN
capital raise in an upsized share sale (originally $15BN) that drew
more than $100 billion in demand. That deal followed hot on the heels of
Nvidia’s plan to tap a group of Wall Street firms for $500 billion in
funding commitments, which CEO Huang said will underwrite AI infrastructure costs
for customers. Today's US economic data calendar includes ADP weekly
employment change (8:15am) and July existing home sales (10am). Fed speaker
slate includes Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee, unscripted on WIRED Tech Support on
YouTube; Cleveland Fed’s Hammack and Richmond Fed’s Barkin have appearances
slated Thursday.
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
The
July small business optimism index came in at 99.8 versus forecasts of 97.5.
International
Other
Update on big four recession indicators.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/08/07/the-big-four-recession-indicators
US Strategic Petroleum Reserve falls below
operational limit.
Iran
Overnight news.
A long (more optimistic) view of Iran.
https://amgreatness.com/2026/08/06/the-long-view-of-iran/
Fiscal
Policy
US
debt servicing cost up 500% in last five years.
AI
Nvidia confirms $500 billion off balance sheet
financing.
The AI bubble is cracking.
Financial
System
Private credit is under a growing strain.
Investing
The number of
stocks outperforming the S&P is the highest in four years.
More on
valuations.
A breakdown of Q2’s
S&P earnings.
The latest from
Morgan Stanley.
Behind the bond
market’s angst.
Will the bond market
verify the stock market’s revival?
https://www.capitalspectator.com/will-the-bond-market-verify-the-stock-markets-revived-optimism/
Can gold build on
its impressive gains?
https://talkmarkets.com/article/can-gold-build-on-its-impressive-gains-1786380297
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
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