Investing for Survival: The Morning Call---A loss for America

The Morning Call

8/6/26

The Market

Technical

Wednesday in the charts.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/gold-rips-stocks-dip-momosqueeze-bounce-stalls-heres-what-just-happened?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTIwNTA2Iiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc4NTk2MTg1NiwiZXhwIjoxNzg4NTUzODU2LCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.XkKeOpG-C5iU4Pb49aU3aMgLNPL8pSXGLmFJNT2bOQc

Wednesday in the technical stats.

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

What seven Market indicators are telling investors.

https://www.morningstar.com/markets/what-7-key-market-indicators-are-telling-investors-right-now

Yesterday, I linked to five articles outlining the current technical set up in very glowing terms. Here is the counter argument.

https://open.substack.com/pub/quoththeraven/p/four-million-call-options-later-people?r=1ng8jx&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web

Gold breaks above resistance (the Aggressive Growth Portfolio bought a one half position in GDX).

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/gold-shrugs-offs-higher-yields-breaks-above-key-resistance-goldman-sees-china-re-engagement?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTIwNTA0Iiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc4NTk2MDM2OCwiZXhwIjoxNzg4NTUyMzY4LCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.TT9B6pAuuovURHbxEEN9J8A_aZwco9u0RUapKTBVnnY

Thursday morning setup: US futures are mixed with S&P futures modestly higher offset by a slide in tech: as of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.1% while Nasdaq futures drop 0.5%, hit by a plunge in Sandisk (down 9% in pre-market), and rival Western Digital which tumbled 15%, after both companies reported earnings. AppLovin also slumped 16% after missing revenue estimates while DataDog tumbled as much as 18% after guidance wasn't strong enough, and pushed Nasdaq to session lows. Mag 7 stocks are mixed (AAPL +1.0% and GOOGL +0.7% are among the outperformers). Asian stocks declined, led by losses in heavyweight chipmakers following earnings reports from US peers that renewed concerns over the stretched rally in memory-related shares. European shares were more resilient and advanced for a 4th day on hopes of an Iran deal (that was supposed to happen two days ago) as strong earnings boosted sentiment, with WPP Plc leading gains in the media sector. Bond yields are 1-2bp higher. Commodity prices were mostly higher: base metals are all higher this morning; gold +0.6%, while silver -0.4%. Overnight, not many incremental updates on US/Iran, with investors waiting for the details of the Iran/Oman deal around the Strait of Hormuz.

Fundamental

Headlines

The Economy

Weekly jobless claims totaled 199,000 versus consensus 202,000.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/initial-jobless-claims-remain-near-57-year-lows

Q2 nonfarm productivity rose 1.4% versus projections of +0.6%; unit labor costs were up 1.3% versus +2.1%.

The July services PMI was 54.6 versus estimates of 53.5; the July composite PMI was 54.5 versus 53.5.

The July ISM services index was 54.1 versus predictions of 54.5.

https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/08/the-economically-weighted-ism-indexes.html

International

June German factory orders were up 3.1% versus forecasts of +0.3%.

June EU retail sales declined 0.3% versus expectations of +0.1%.

The July German construction PMI was 42.1 versus consensus of 45.0; the July EU construction PMI was 44.3 versus 43.6; the July UK construction PMI was 44.7 versus 40.0.

Other

The sentiment indicators are not good (but those with skin in the game [the Market] apparently think otherwise).

https://mrzepczynski.blogspot.com/2026/08/consumer-sentiment-not-supporting.html

El Nino raises risk of weather shocks.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-08-05/el-nino-raises-risk-of-weather-shocks-across-global-economies?srnd=homepage-americas

Summary: The El Niño on track to become the most powerful of the past 76 years is strengthening rapidly, posing a major threat to fragile economies already roiled by conflict in the Middle East. For emerging markets, and especially for nations in Latin America, Africa and Asia, El Niño’s intense heat and erratic rains will likely compound months of higher oil import costs and strained supply chains warped by the war in Iran. In countries including India and Colombia, El Niño events have repeatedly amped up pressure on energy systems and food commodities that help feed billions globally.