The Morning Call
8/19/26
The
Market
Technical
Tuesday in the
charts.
Tuesday in the
technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
The latest from
Goldman.
The
decoupling of price and breadth.
Wednesday morning
setup. Futures are flat but off their lows as Tech gets a boost from a huge
Hynix buyback, which erased ~8% decline to trade up as much as 2% and
reversed a 5.8% drop in the Nikkei; the ADRs are +5.6% pre-mkt
boosting both Memory and Korea ETFs. As of 8:15am ET, S&P futures are
fractionally in the green, with Nasdaq futures down 0.1% even as momentum looks
to retrace some of yesterday’s losses. In premarket trading, Semis, Memory, and
Mag7 are higher with Software and Low Profitable Tech weaker. Cyclicals and
Defensives are both mixed as the market has not yet decided on direction. Bond
yields are flat to down 1bp, following from yesterday with USD weaker.
Commodities are bid with all 3 complexes moving higher. Brent crude rose 0.8%
and briefly topped $92 barrel for the first time since July with little
evidence of progress toward a resolution of the US-Iran war. Today’s macro
focus is on the 20Y bond auction, which is likely to need a concession, and on
the Fed Minutes where investors seek clarity on the Fed’s reaction function in
a tape that lacks significant catalysts. NVDA and Jackson Hole loom large.
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly mortgage
applications declined 0.4% while purchase applications were down 2.0%.
Month to date
retail chain store sales were up 7.6% versus +8.3% in the prior week.
July industrial
production rose 0.2% versus forecasts of +0.3%; capacity utilization was 76.3%,
in line.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/08/the-positive-trend-in-manufacturing.html
July
pending home sales fell 2.3% versus projections of +0.3%.
International
June Japanese machinery
orders were up 9.7% versus estimates of +7.8%.
July UK CPI came in at +0.3%, in line; core
CPI was +0.2% versus +0.1%.
July EU CPI was up 0.2%, in line.
Other
The conundrum in today’s economy.
https://allisonschrager.substack.com/p/no-warm-nuts-for-you
Iran
Overnight news.
Monetary
Policy
The price of Fed
silence. (I am not sure I agree with the author; but include the article for
the sake of the argument.)
https://thedailyeconomy.org/article/the-price-of-fed-silence/
Fiscal
Policy
The national debt is already a disaster.
Inflation
Construction cost inflation of nonresidential
building soars amid AI mania.
AI
Markets are saying the AI slop has little value.
https://futurism.com/artificial-intelligence/economy-ai-generated-value
Tariffs
Global supply chains and the limits to US
decoupling.
The
Financial System
Lending money to people who don’t have it.
(4)
Buying Bullshit In “4 Easy Payments” - by Quoth the Raven
Investing
Bond hell is breaking loose.
Treasury yields
spike as fiscal drift and global risks pile up.
https://www.capitalspectator.com/treasury-yields-spike-as-fiscal-drift-and-global-risks-pile-up/
Impossible to
answer questions about the future.
https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-situational-awareness/?src=news
The case for
owning TIPS especially if you are a senior.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2026/08/13/long-tips-yield-time-to-buy
August outlook for
S&P dividends.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2026/08/the-outlook-for-s-500-dividends-in.html
Think like an investor, not a speculator.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/08/18/think-like-investor-not-speculator
Passive investing
is driving the decline in active fund alpha.
The changing
economics of the gold miners.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
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