The Morning Call--The war from Iran's perspective

 

The Morning Call

 

3/12/26

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/credit-crude-crush-bonds-stocks-right-tail-squeeze-risk-remains

 

            Wednesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum           

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            From Goldman’s desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/private-credit-ramps-executive-put-dominate-market-action

 

            Something starting to break.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/oil-volatility-exploding-and-something-starting-break

 

            A bubble may be bursting and it is not because of Iran.

                        https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-uncanny-s-p-500-chart-suggests-a-bubble-is-bursting-and-not-just-because-of-iran-77d45514?st=tPJzne

 

            Mag seven meltdown or bull market reset?

            https://trendlabs.com/mag-seven-meltdown-or-bull-market-reset/

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 213,000 versus consensus of 215,000.

 

The January trade balance was -$54.5 billion versus predictions of -$66.6 billion.

 

January housing starts were up 7.2% versus forecasts of down 2.4%; January building permits were down 5.3% versus -1.5%.

 

                        International

 

                        Other

 

                          Changes in immigration enforcement and median household income.

                          https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2026/03/changes-in-immigration-enforcement-and.html

 

                          Update on the supply/demand in the housing market.

                          https://wolfstreet.com/2026/03/10/supply-of-single-family-homes-surges-to-highest-for-february-in-9-years-demand-stuck-in-the-deepfreeze/

 

                          A detailed look at yesterday's CPI number.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/03/february-cpi-likely-last-hurrah-for.html

 

            Iran

 

              Overnight News.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/two-more-tankers-hit-bringing-total-six-ships-oil-tops-100-after-trump-declares-we-won

 

Here is a summary of Iran’s and the opposition’s thinking about the war and its outcome.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2026/03/iran-war-iran-seeks-decolonization-of-gulf-region-iea-proposes-emergency-release-of-reserves-nuclear-strike-risk-assessment-iran-escalates-strikes.html

 

              LNG suppliers declare force majeure on contracts with Qatar.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-11/shell-declares-force-majeure-on-lng-contracts-from-qatar?srnd=homepage-americas

 

The International Energy Agency agrees to release 400 million barrels of oil from reserves.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/iea-proposes-largest-ever-oil-stockpile-release-there-just-one-big-problem

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              The case for an easier Fed.

              https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2026/03/jobs-and-war-fed-needs-to-ease.html

 

              Counterpoint.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-03-11/us-fiscal-discipline-depends-on-an-independent-federal-reserve?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

                          Lack of clarity plagues Fed policy.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/the-war-may-end-soon-but-the-feds-battle-is-only-beginning/

 

            The Financial System

 

              JP Morgan restricts loans to private credit.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-11/jpmorgan-marks-down-private-credit-portfolios-ft-reports?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

                          Bad underwriting is the crisis in private credit.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-11/pimco-blames-sloppy-underwriting-for-private-credit-reckoning?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

 

                          Apollo plans to value its private securities fund monthly.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-11/apollo-plans-to-value-private-credit-daily-in-answer-to-critics?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

 

     Investing

 

            There is no ‘smart money’ or ‘dumb money’.

            https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/smart-money-dumb-money-its-all-just-money-706cd1e3?st=YkxGqW

 

            Why private market funds are dangerous for retail investors.

            https://www.promarket.org/2026/03/09/why-private-market-funds-are-dangerous-for-retail-investors/

 

            Ed Yardini on the financial stocks.

            FINANCIALS: Black & Blue Owl

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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