The Morning Call---Orderly until it isn't

 

The Morning Call

 

3/27/26

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/oil-spikes-nukes-no-deal-headline-fatigue-hammers-bonds-big-tech-bitcoin-bullion

 

Note: the S&P has now marked a fifth lower high and closed slightly below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level (~6483). If it can’t recover that level, the next visible support is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level (~6163). Stay cautious but be looking for buy candidates.

 

                Thursday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            Orderly until it isn’t.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/looks-orderly-until-it-isnt

 

            The latest from Goldman’s desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/march-madness-continues-goldmans-flows-gurus-warn-stay-hedge-and-nimble

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

The March Kansas City Fed manufacturing index came in at 11 versus forecasts of 2.

                                                  https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/03/26/kansas-city-fed-manufacturing-index-hits-highest-level-since-2022

 

                        International

 

February UK YoY auto production fell 10.7% versus projections of +8.6%; February retail sales were down 0.4% versus -0.7%; ex fuel, they were down 0.4% versus -0.8%; the March consumer confidence index was -2.1 versus -2.4.

 

February Chinese YoY industrial profits were up 15.2% versus consensus off +0.9%.

 

                        Other

 

                         Can predictions markets predict?

                         https://klementoninvesting.substack.com/p/can-prediction-markets-predict

 

                        More on yesterday’s weekly jobless claims number.

                        https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/03/new-and-continuing-jobless-claims.html

           

            Iran

 

              Overnight news.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/escalation-all-fronts-mediators-say-iran-hasnt-requested-pause-us-energy-strikes

           

            Monetary Policy

 

              M2 update.

              https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2026/03/m2-update-ok-for-now-but-fed-should-ease.html

 

              Atlanta Fed odds of a rate cut/increase.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2026/03/the-administration-campaign-to-push-down-the-fed-funds-rate-computer-says-no

 

              Update on the Fed’s P&L.

              https://wolfstreet.com/2026/03/25/feds-operating-losses-declined-to-19-billion-in-2025-unrealized-losses-declined-to-844-billion/

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Spot lighting potential fraud in government spending.

https://www.realclearinvestigations.com/articles/2026/03/24/citizen_sleuths_spotlight_red_flags_galore_in_government_spending_1172246.html?mc_cid=5f4e1fc3df

 

 

              OECD ups its inflation forecast.

   https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-26/war-hits-global-economy-with-us-inflation-seen-by-oecd-at-4-2?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            Tariffs

 

              EU lawmakers approve US trade deal.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-26/eu-lawmakers-approve-us-trade-deal-after-several-delays?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

     Investing

 

            Five lessons investors need to know.

            https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/five-lessons-all-investors-need-to-know-in-todays-volatile-times/

 

            One factor driving all returns.

            https://www.apolloacademy.com/one-factor-driving-all-returns/

 

            Markets have decoupled again.

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/markets-are-decoupling-again-based-on-return-correlations/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Can this medieval shipwreck rewrite history?

            Can this medieval Byzantine shipwreck rewrite history? | National Geographic

 

 

                        The mistaken identity of predictions markets.

            The Mistaken Identity of Prediction Markets

 

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