Tuesday, March 3, 2026

The Morning Call---World's largest private credit firm hit iwth record redemptions

 

The Morning Call

 

3/3/26

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bond-yields-black-gold-bitcoin-blast-amid-mideast-maelstrom

 

Note: most investors (including me) were surprised by the Markets seeming lack of concern over the Iran conflict. I don’t know if it has already been fully discounted or if the Market likes wars (it has in the past). The bond market actually sold off (in other words, it did not act as a safe haven) which may be a function of what is occurring in the private credit market (none of it good---see below). Whatever the reason for the Market’s seeming indifference, the bottom line technically is that it remains in a very tight trading range and until there is follow through in one direction or the other, I am doing nothing.

 

            Twelve charts you need to see this morning.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/largest-amount-put-protection-ever

 

            Monday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            The latest from Goldman.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/growing-number-problems-market

 

            The latest from JP Morgan.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/what-gets-us-7000-what-drags-us-6700-jpmorgans-desk-lays-out-two-market-scenarios

 

            Did gold just print a blowoff top?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/did-gold-just-print-blow-top

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

The February manufacturing PMI was reported at 51.6 versus forecasts of 51.2.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/03/02/sp-global-manufacturing-pmi-february-2026

 

The February ISM manufacturing Index was 52.4 versus projections of 51.8.

https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/03/ism-manufacturing-in-february-positive.html

 

 

                        International

 

Q4 Japanese YoY capital spending increased 6.5% versus consensus of +3.0%; the January unemployment rate was 2.7% versus 2.6%.

 

The February EU flash CPI was +0.8% versus expectations of +0.2%.

 

                        Other

 

                          Inside the construction spending data.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/construction-spending-data-centers-factories-powerplants-and-office-buildings-boom-bust

 

            Overnight News

 

              Iran update.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/israel-opens-second-front-day-4-trumps-iran-war-irgc-refuses-back-down

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Why the Fed is so unimportant.

              https://www.forbes.com/sites/johntamny/2026/03/01/the-fed-if-youre-thinking-about-it-your-mind-is-wandering-aimlessly/

 

              Chances of a rate cut are evaporating.

  https://www.marketwatch.com/story/any-chance-the-fed-cuts-rates-this-year-is-evaporating-before-our-very-eyes-as-iran-tensions-raise-oil-prices-18978691?st=Yg5Q1R

 

            AI

 

              Good things are good.

              https://scottsumner.substack.com/p/good-things-are-good

 

              The problem AI may not be able to solve.

              https://spyglass.org/ai-taste/

 

            The Financial System

 

              Finance in the dark.

              https://www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/finance-in-the-dark/

 

              World’s largest private credit firm hit with record redemptions.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/private-credit-panic-goes-11-worlds-largest-private-credit-fund-hit-record-redemptions

 

     Investing

 

            It is never too late.

            https://humbledollar.com/forum/its-never-too-late/

 

            Sentiment belies strong economic estimates.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/03/02/economic-sentiment-strong-economic-estimates

 

This is an interesting piece on how crashes occur and that they are unpredictable. But we already know crashes occur unpredictably.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/03/02/coming-crisis-fingers-instability

 

            Being cautious on software.

            https://www.ft.com/content/c71d1039-8134-433c-bf96-5d14f3bbfdc3

           

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

What I am reading today

 

            Whatever happened to checks and balances?

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-03-02/iran-strikes-congress-let-presidents-ignore-the-war-powers-act-for-decades?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

                        The right to say no.

            https://www.theargumentmag.com/p/anthropic-and-the-right-to-say-no

 

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