The Morning Call---Fading the rally

 

The Morning Call

 

3/10/26

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/it-over-everything-reverses-unch-after-opening-end-world-panic-overnight

 

                Monday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            Another bear market signal.

            https://talkmarkets.com/article/this-one-signal-has-predicted-every-bear-market-and-it-just-triggered-1773077618

           

            The value of bad news.

            https://chartkidmatt.com/p/the-value-of-bad-news

 

            JP Morgan desk turns tactically bearish.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorgan-desk-turns-tactically-bearish-sees-sp-dropping-6270

 

            Goldman fading the rally.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/id-be-fading-rally-top-goldman-trader-warns-larger-issues-remain-iran

 

            More pain ahead.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/more-pain-ahead-ctas-sellers-every-scenario-lack-liquidation-flush-keeps-biggest-traders

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

The weekly ADP employment change totaled 15,500 versus 12,750 in the prior week.

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/adp-signals-best-job-gains-almost-4-months-bls-payrolls-plunged

 

The February small business optimism index came in at 98.8 versus estimates of 99.7.

 

                        International

 

Q4 Japanese GDP growth was -2.5% versus predictions of +0.8%; the Q4 YoY average cash earnings were up 3.0% versus +2.5%; Q4 private consumption was up 0.3% versus +0.1%; January household spending fell 2.5% versus +0.8%; January YoY average cash earnings rose 3.0% versus +2.5%; February YoY machine tool orders were up 24.2% versus +25.3%.

 

The January German trade balance weas +E21.2 billion versus consensus of +E15.2 billion.

 

The January/February Chinese trade balance was $213.6 billion versus expectations of $179.6 billion.

 

                        Other

 

                          New business formation is exploding.

                          https://www.apolloacademy.com/new-business-formation-exploding-higher/

 

            Iran

 

Trump says Iran war ahead of schedule. I guess he didn’t read the part about the new leader.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/iran-says-no-room-talks-us-seeks-partition-country-take-oil-new-hardline-ayatollah

 

                          Nor this.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/irgc-says-iran-not-us-will-determine-wars-end-trump-threatens-strikes-20-times-harder

 

                           All the jawboning may just be propaganda. This isn’t propaganda.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/iran-hails-deadly-cluster-bomb-central-israel-first-wave-under-new-ayatollah

 

              The Iran war adds a new level of supply chain stress.

              https://www.axios.com/2026/03/05/iran-war-trump-gas-prices

 

              Gigantic error or part of the plan?

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/oil-vey

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet does not curb inflation.

              https://theopinionpages.com/2026/03/shrinking-the-feds-balance-sheet-wont-curb-inflation-and-could-expand-the-feds-reach/

 

              The Fed isn’t independent. It never was. And it doesn’t matter.

              https://www.forbes.com/sites/johntamny/2026/03/08/the-federal-reserve-is-not-independent-and-never-was/

 

              Th Fed has a big problem on its hands.

              https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/the-fed-has-a-big-problem-on-their-hands/

 

              The real threat is artificial credit, not artificial intelligence.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/real-threat-artificial-credit-not-artificial-intelligence

 

            Inflation

 

              The increasing odds of inflation/stagflation.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/tehran-defies-us-as-conflict-escalates-and-markets-reel/

 

            Recession

 

              How $4/gallon gasoline takes the economy into recession.

              https://talkmarkets.com/article/how-4gallon-gas-could-take-the-economy-from-a-nearly-complete-stall-into-outright-recession-1773080763

 

            AI

 

              AI and creative destruction.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/03/09/ai-creative-destruction

 

              The societal implications of AI are not clear.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/ai/humanity-crossed-threshold-and-most-us-scrolled-past-it

           

            The Financial System

 

               Private credit funds are in a brutal position.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2026-03-08/blackrock-blackstone-confront-withdrawals-as-private-credit-redemptions-surge?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

 

     Investing

 

            Stagflation trade sweeps Market.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-09/stagflation-trades-sweep-markets-as-trump-signals-widening-war?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            Investors are not ready for a true shock.

            https://www.ft.com/content/d1f70afe-61f9-4993-9413-00463a60fe61

 

            Software is extremely cheap.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/software-extremely-cheap-another-squeeze-coming

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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