The Morning Call
3/13/26
The
Market
Technical
Thursday in the
charts.
Note: the next
support level likely to be tested is the 200 DMA (~6600). If that doesn’t hold
then the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement levels (~6483).
Thursday in the technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
More from JP Morgan’s desk.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/where-here-jpmorgan-trading-desk-scenario-analysis
Searching for signs of capitulation.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/searching-signs-capitulation
Seasonality: the
Market tends to trough in mid-March.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/vix-tends-peak-and-spy-trough-mid-march
What retail is
doing.
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Q4 (2nd
est.) GDP grew 0.7% versus forecasts of +1.4%; the QoQ PCE price index was +3.8% versus
+3.7%; the QoQ core PCE price index was +2.7%, in line.
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/feds-favorite-inflation-indicator-rises-near-2-year-high
January durable
goods orders fell 1.4% versus expectations of +1.2%; ex transportation, they were
up 0.4% versus +0.5%
The January PCE price
index was up 0.4%, in line.
January personal
income rose 0.4% versus consensus of +0.5%; personal spending was up 0.4%
versus +0.3%.
International
January EU industrial
production fell 1.5% versus predictions of +0.6%.
January
UK GDP was flat versus estimates of +0.2%; the January
trade balance was +L3.9 billion versus -L6.2 billion; January industrial production fell 0.1% versus +0.2%;
January YoY construction output was down 0.2% versus -0.1%.
February
German PPI came in at +0.6% versus projections of +0.4%.
Other
Mixed signals from the housing market.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/03/housing-permits-starts-and-construction.html
Iran
Overnight news.
Inflation
Grocery prices continue to rise.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2026/03/grocery-prices-continue-to-rise
The bad joke Owners’
Equivalent Rent. (Much of this article is a review of Tuesday’s CPI reading. That
subject has already been covered in a prior post---so you can skip it. Just go
the section OER which is a great explanation of what and why this is a bogus measure)
The two main inflation gauges are telling different
stories.
The
Financial System
The private credit sausage factory.
https://philbak.substack.com/p/the-pe-sausage-factory
Investing
Is the 60/40 model
portfolio all it is cracked up to be?
Understanding the
portfolio effects of US equity market concentration.
https://www.deshaw.com/assets/articles/DESCO_The_Concentration_Game_20260224.pdf
The S&P mean
reverts. (I wonder what this graph would look like if it was plotted for a
longer period of time)
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2026/03/the-s-500-reverts-back-to-mean.html
War costs sink government
bonds.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
Quote
of the day.
https://cafehayek.com/2026/03/quotation-of-the-day-5313.html
Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.
No comments:
Post a Comment