The Morning Call---Remember, cash is a position

 

The Morning Call

 

3/25/26

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

                        https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quiet-too-quiet-day-turns-turmoily-boots-ground-chatter-battered-bonds-bitcoin-black-gold

 

Note: the S&P closed below its 200 DMA for the fourth day, confirming the break and resetting it to resistance. That leaves the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level (~6483) as the next visible support level. Stay cautious.

 

                        Tuesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            Gold at $10,000?

            https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/24/gold-price-forecast-10000-expectations-in-spite-of-bear-market.html

 

            The setup for a squeeze in gold.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/gold-vol-flip-panic-hedging-sets-squeeze

 

            If the ten year Treasury breaks above 4.4%, there is a problem.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/44-line-if-10-year-breaks-everything-changes

           

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

                                   

Weekly mortgage applications were down 10.5% while purchase applications were down 5.0%.        

 

Month to date retail chain store sales rose 6.7% versus +6.4% in the prior week.

 

The March Richmond Fed manufacturing index was 0 virus forecasts of -5.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/03/24/richmond-fed-manufacturing-activity-flat-march-2026

 

The March manufacturing PMI was 52.4 versus predictions of 51.3; the services PMI was 51.1 versus 51.5; the composite PMI was 51.4 versus 50.5 (it was 51.9 in February)

                                  https://talkmarkets.com/article/us-pmis-signal-stagflation-fears-accelerating-as-war-started-1774372053

 

                        International

 

The January Japanese leading economic indicators came in at 112.1 versus consensus of 112.4.

 

February UK CPI was up 0.4%, in line; core CPI was up 0.6% versus +0.5%.

 

The March German business climate index was 86.4 versus expectations of 86.1; the March current conditions index was 86.7 versus 86.0.

 

                        Other

                         

                                  Update on Q1 GDP nowcast.

                          https://talkmarkets.com/article/gdpnow-first-quarter-gdp-estimate-sinks-to-20-percent-still-too-high-1774374491

 

                                  The bond market is sending an unprecedented message.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/03/the-bond-market-sends-unprecedented.html

 

            Iran

 

              Overnight news.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/iran-warns-it-wont-be-fooled-again-negotiations-attacks-continue-us-troops-en-route

 

              Insider betting on the end of the war?

  https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-same-polymarket-trader-who-predicted-the-start-of-the-iran-war-is-now-betting-on-a-cease-fire-by-next-week-6245157b?st=GtTuWh

 

 

            The Financial System

 

            Another private credit firm caps withdrawals.

            https://www.ft.com/content/d315cb1c-1e1e-479c-a6d4-b3a817fead3e?syn-25a6b1a6=1

 

            Make that two.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ares-latest-gate-investors-private-credit-fund-heres-who-will-gate-next

           

            Goldman’s analysis of the private credit crisis.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/will-private-credit-lead-another-financial-crisis-goldman-answers

 

     Investing

 

            Questions.

            https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-questions-4/?src=news

 

            Can you beat the Market by avoiding its worse days?

            https://www.morningstar.com/funds/you-can-beat-stock-market-by-avoiding-its-worst-days-you-wont

 

            Remember, cash is a position.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/03/24/shelter-no

 

            Being right is being early.

            https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6191618

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            A great state income tax divorce

            https://issuesinsights.com/2026/03/23/a-great-income-tax-divorce-is-underway-and-its-a-beautiful-thing/

 

 

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