The Morning Call
3/4/26
The
Market
Technical
Before the open.
Tuesday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/everyone-getting-pounded
Note: a rough day
in stock land, though the late afternoon proposal by Trump to provide insurance
to ships transiting the Hormuz Straits kept prices off the bottom of the day’s
trading range. Nonetheless, the S&P did close below the lower boundary of that
ever tightening gap between the 100 DMA (~6834) and the all-time high (~6924)---but
not by much. Givern that it has tested the 100 DMA and bounced on three prior
occasions, I don’t think that one day’s negative pin action is sufficient to get
beared up just yet. Though clearly any negative follow through would likely spell
much lower prices---the next visible support level being the 200 DMA (~6569).
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/weve-broken-box-these-are-key-levels-watch-stocks-slump
Tuesday in the technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
The Market
performance following the first cannon shot.
Keep an eye on the
dispersion trade.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/dispersion-trade-unwind-fastest-route-higher-index-vol
Volatility shock.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/volatility-shock-panic-spreading
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly mortgage
applications were up 11% while purchase applications were up 6.1%.
The February
ADP employment change report showed job increases of 63,000 versus consensus of
50,000.
International
The January EU
unemployment rate was 6.1% versus predictions of 6.2%; January
PPI was up 0.7% versus +0.2%.
The February Japanese
services PMI came in at 53.8, in line; the February composite PMI was 53.9
versus 53.8; the February Chinese manufacturing PMI was 49.0 versus 49.1; the
February services PMI was 49.5 versus 49.8; the February composite PMI was 49.5
versus 50.2; the February German services PMI was 53.5 versus 53.4; the
February composite PMI was 53.2 versus 53.1; the February EU services PMI was 51.9
versus 51.8; the February composite PMI was 51.9, in line; the February UK
services PMI was 53.9, in line; the February composite PMI was 53.7 versus 53.9.
Other
January median household income.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2026/03/median-household-income-in-january-2026.html
Iran
Vessel struck in Straits of Hormuz.
Inflation
Iran, oil prices and inflation.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/03/business/us-iran-israel-economic-fallout.html
Recession
How
high do oil prices need to go to create a recession?
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/03/the-potential-of-us-war-with-iran-for.html
AI
SaaS; Is there opportunity in destruction?
https://talkmarkets.com/article/saas-is-there-opportunity-in-the-destruction-1772463015
AI’s impact on interest rates.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/citadel-warns-ai-will-displace-feds-view-neutral
Tariffs
The price we pay for
tariffs. I have noted several times that I believe that there are some
perfectly valid reasons for using tariffs as a political tool (Chinese theft of
US intellectual property; EU not paying its way for its defense). But as an all-encompassing
strategy designed to raise vast amounts of money, it has been a failure.
The
Dollar
The dollar reclaims its safe haven role.
Investing
Keep calm and
carry on.
https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-keep-calm-and-carry-on/?src=news
The long term
benefit to exploiting myopia.
https://alphaarchitect.com/long-term-investing/
More on valuation.
Three red flags
that you can’t ignore.
Near term risks are elevated.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
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