The Morning Call
3/24/26
The
Market
Technical
Monday in the
charts.
Note: the good
news is that the S&P bounced off the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. The
bad news is that it challenged its 200 DMA and failed. Meaning that if it can’t
close above it today, the DMA will revert to resistance. Until the S&P can
at least make a higher high, the trend is not your friend.
Monday in the technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
A classic fake out.
The bear market hiding
beneath the surface.
https://talkmarkets.com/article/the-bear-market-hiding-beneath-the-calm-surface-1774002610
The latest from
Goldman’s desk.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/todays-market-ripfest-comes-worst-possible-time-beared-funds
Headline risk hits
new levels.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/headline-risk-hits-new-levels-after-manic-monday
‘Smart money’
buying gold puts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/gold-prints-hammer-smart-money-buys-puts
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Q4 (QoQ) nonfarm
productivity was up 1.8% versus expectations of +2.0%.
January construction
spending fell 0.3% versus consensus of +0.1%.
International
February Japanese CPI
came in at -0.2% versus projections of +0.2%.
The March flash Japanese
manufacturing PMI was 51.4 versus estimates of 52.8; the flash services PMI was
52.8 versus 51.5; the flash composite PMI was 52.8 versus 51.3; the March flash
German manufacturing PMI was 51.7 versus 49.5; the flash services PMI was 51.2
versus 52.5; the flash composite PMI was 51.9 versus 52.0; the March flash EU manufacturing
PMI was 51.4 versus 49.4; the flash services PMI was 50.1 versus 51.1; the flash
composite PMI was 50.5 versus 51.0; the March flash UK manufacturing PMI was
51.4 versus 50.1; the flash services PMI was 51.2 versus 53.0; the flash
composite PMI was 51.0 versus 52.9.
The March EU flash
consumer confidence index was -16.6 versus
predictions of -14.4.
Other
Q4 real household net worth.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/03/23/household-net-worth-q4-2025
Half full or half empty?
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/03/23/glass-is-half
A deeper dive into yesterday's construction
spending report.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/03/construction-spending-in-january.html
Oil won’t snap back to its old regime.
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/oil-wont-snap-back-its-old-regime-long-time
Iran
Overnight news.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/oil-plunges-stocks-spike-after-trumps-comments-iran
Strategic failure in Iran.
A
Strategic Failure in Iran - by Quoth the Raven
Monetary
Policy
If the Fed is wrong about rates, the market will
fix it.
Understanding
inflation targeting.
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/5790125-section-301-investigation-trade-surpluses/
Recession
Global growth estimates continue to improve.
https://www.apolloacademy.com/global-growth-expectations-continue-to-improve/
Goldman hikes recession odds to 30%.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-hikes-us-recession-odds-30
The
Financial System
Estimating the banking industry’s exposure to
the private credit market.
Private credit---the next crisis looming over
the global economy.
Tariffs
Tariffs and the laws of economics.
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/5790125-section-301-investigation-trade-surpluses/
The
Dollar
Thoughts on the dollar’s strength.
Investing
Nobody knows.
https://www.tker.co/p/stock-market-whipsaw-amid-iran-war-uncertainty
When your
diversifiers don’t diversify.
https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/when-your-diversifiers-dont-diversify/
The squeeze setup
in software builds.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/software-squeeze-setup-builds
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
Quote
of the day.
https://cafehayek.com/2026/03/quotation-of-the-day-5287.html
Enjoying things
on purpose.
https://www.raptitude.com/2026/03/in-favor-of-enjoying-things-on-purpose/
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for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
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