Tuesday, March 24, 2026

The Morning Call---Strategic failure in Iran

 

The Morning Call

 

3/24/26

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/trump-triggers-months-worth-price-action-breakfast-markets-remain-skeptical

 

Note: the good news is that the S&P bounced off the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. The bad news is that it challenged its 200 DMA and failed. Meaning that if it can’t close above it today, the DMA will revert to resistance. Until the S&P can at least make a higher high, the trend is not your friend.

 

                Monday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            A classic fake out.

            https://talkmarkets.com/article/the-giant-nq-candle-trap-why-absurdly-low-volume-exposed-a-classic-insider-fakeout-on-ceasefire-news-1774289507

 

            The bear market hiding beneath the surface.

            https://talkmarkets.com/article/the-bear-market-hiding-beneath-the-calm-surface-1774002610

 

            The latest from Goldman’s desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/todays-market-ripfest-comes-worst-possible-time-beared-funds

 

            Headline risk hits new levels.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/headline-risk-hits-new-levels-after-manic-monday

 

            ‘Smart money’ buying gold puts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/gold-prints-hammer-smart-money-buys-puts

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Q4 (QoQ) nonfarm productivity was up 1.8% versus expectations of +2.0%.

 

                          January construction spending fell 0.3% versus consensus of +0.1%.

 

                        International

 

                          February Japanese CPI came in at -0.2% versus projections of +0.2%.

 

The March flash Japanese manufacturing PMI was 51.4 versus estimates of 52.8; the flash services PMI was 52.8 versus 51.5; the flash composite PMI was 52.8 versus 51.3; the March flash German manufacturing PMI was 51.7 versus 49.5; the flash services PMI was 51.2 versus 52.5; the flash composite PMI was 51.9 versus 52.0; the March flash EU manufacturing PMI was 51.4 versus 49.4; the flash services PMI was 50.1 versus 51.1; the flash composite PMI was 50.5 versus 51.0; the March flash UK manufacturing PMI was 51.4 versus 50.1; the flash services PMI was 51.2 versus 53.0; the flash composite PMI was 51.0 versus 52.9.

 

The March EU flash consumer confidence index was -16.6 versus predictions of -14.4.

 

                        Other

 

                          Q4 real household net worth.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/03/23/household-net-worth-q4-2025

 

                          Half full or half empty?

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/03/23/glass-is-half

 

                          A deeper dive into yesterday's construction spending report.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/03/construction-spending-in-january.html

 

                          Oil won’t snap back to its old regime.

                                  https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/oil-wont-snap-back-its-old-regime-long-time

 

            Iran

 

              Overnight news.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/oil-plunges-stocks-spike-after-trumps-comments-iran

 

              Strategic failure in Iran.

              A Strategic Failure in Iran - by Quoth the Raven

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              If the Fed is wrong about rates, the market will fix it.

              https://www.forbes.com/sites/johntamny/2026/03/22/if-jerome-powell-is-wrong-about-rates-then-markets-will-fix-his-error/

 

              Understanding inflation targeting.

              https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/5790125-section-301-investigation-trade-surpluses/

 

            Recession

 

              Global growth estimates continue to improve.

              https://www.apolloacademy.com/global-growth-expectations-continue-to-improve/

 

              Goldman hikes recession odds to 30%.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-hikes-us-recession-odds-30

 

            The Financial System

 

              Estimating the banking industry’s exposure to the private credit market.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-03-23/private-credit-is-making-bank-investors-antsy-too?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

              Private credit---the next crisis looming over the global economy.

              https://talkmarkets.com/article/private-debt-the-next-crisis-looming-over-the-global-economy-1774260131

 

            Tariffs

 

              Tariffs and the laws of economics.

              https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/5790125-section-301-investigation-trade-surpluses/

 

            The Dollar

 

              Thoughts on the dollar’s strength.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2026/03/23/the_dollars_strength_has_little_to_do_with_exorbitant_privilege_1171929.html

 

     Investing

 

            Nobody knows.

            https://www.tker.co/p/stock-market-whipsaw-amid-iran-war-uncertainty

 

            When your diversifiers don’t diversify.

            https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/when-your-diversifiers-dont-diversify/

 

            The squeeze setup in software builds.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/software-squeeze-setup-builds

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Quote of the day.

            https://cafehayek.com/2026/03/quotation-of-the-day-5287.html

 

                        Enjoying things on purpose.

            https://www.raptitude.com/2026/03/in-favor-of-enjoying-things-on-purpose/

 

 

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