The Morning Call---The ridicuous definition of reciprocal tariffs

 

The Morning Call

 

7/11/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

                https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bitcoin-surges-new-record-high-momo-meltdown-continues-uncertainty-soars-again

 

                Thursday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

 

            Melt up madness.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/melt-madness-vol-collapses-complacency-soars

 

            Seasonality and hedging the momentum tantrum.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/you-are-here-seasonality-hedging-momentum-tantrum

 

            Bitcoin breaks out.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/moon-mode-melt-btc-breaks-out-200k-sight

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                        International

 

May UK GDP was down 0.1% versus forecasts of +0.1%; May industrial production fell 0.9% versus 0.0%; the May trade balance was -L5.9 billion versus -L6.0 billion; May YoY construction output was up 1.2% versus up 1.7%.

 

                          June German PPI was up 0.2%, in line.

 

                        Other

 

                          The declining status of the dollar as a global reserve asset.

https://wolfstreet.com/2025/07/09/the-declining-status-of-the-us-dollar-as-global-reserve-currency-as-central-banks-diversify-into-other-currencies-gold/

 

                          Hotel occupancy rate decreases YoY.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/07/hotels-occupancy-rate-decreased-04-year.html

                       

                          A deeper dive into the weekly jobless claims number.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/07/jobless-claims-continue-to-suggest.html

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              A closer look at the social security tax breaks in the BBB.

              https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/retirement/2025/07/08/social-security-tax-breaks-big-beautiful-bill/84502185007/

 

It is so annoying when someone (Bidens’s chief economist) who is partly responsible for a problem (the soaring debt/deficit) excuses their role then whines that the opposition has now made it a crisis. Of course, I guess that I should be happy that he now recognizes it even if he dodges his responsibility in it.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/09/opinion/debt-deficit-economy-shock.html

 

A word of caution.

https://www.axios.com/2025/07/09/trump-tariffs-big-beautiful-bill

 

And now for the good news. The Supreme Court rules in favor on Trump’s efforts to reduce the size of government.

https://behindtheblack.com/behind-the-black/essays-and-commentaries/the-walls-of-jericho-blocking-trumps-effort-to-streamline-government-have-now-fallen/

 

The national debt/deficit in the charts.

https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/if-something-cannot-go-forever-it-will-stop

 

            Inflation

 

              Main Street fears tariff inflation more than Wall Street.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/main-street-fear-much-bigger-tariff-shock-wall-street

 

            Tariffs

 

              Trump’s latest moves---more bark than bite?

              https://investorsobserver.com/news/trumps-tariff-blitz-isnt-trade-war-yet-heres-why-ubs-says-you-shouldnt-panic/

 

The ridiculous definition of reciprocal tariffs. (Note: I continue to believe that this is Trump’s way of raising taxes to deal with the deficit.)

              https://mishtalk.com/economics/letters-show-trump-sticks-with-ridiculous-definition-of-reciprocal-tariffs/

 

     Investing

 

            Become an investment hermit.

            https://tonyisola.com/2025/07/become-an-investment-hermit/

 

            How to choose a crypto ETF.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/07/10/how-crypto-exchange-traded-fund-practical-guide-financial-advisors

 

Active patience is knowing what you are looking for and doing nothing until you find it.

            https://microcapclub.com/no-paralysis-through-analysis/

 

                        Another warning that risk is being underestimated.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/markets-face-points-fragility-bca-warns-japan-remains-underestimated-risk

 

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

            High yielding stocks with big payouts (MO, TROW).

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/stocks--equities/3-high-yield-stocks-with-secure-payouts?post=508375

 

What I am reading today

 

           

                        Friday morning humor.

            7 Totally Plausible Explanations For What Happened To The Epstein List On Pam Bondi's Desk | Babylon Bee

 

            17 out of place artifacts suggest that high tech civilizations existed thousands of years ago.

                        https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/17-out-place-artifacts-suggest-high-tech-civilizations-existed-thousands-or-millions

 

 

 

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