The Morning Call--The fiscal future

 

The Morning Call

 

7/29/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/us-stocks-shrug-trade-deal-palooza-bonds-bitcoin-bullion-dumped

 

                Monday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

 

            Charts from Goldman show speculative frenzy.

            https://sherwood.news/markets/these-charts-from-goldman-sachs-show-how-much-the-stock-market-is-in-thrall/

 

            More from Goldman.

                        https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/market-dynamics-have-shifted-under-hood-goldman-flows-gurus-expect-crack-later-summer

 

            Breadth is bad and that is good, says this analyst.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/breadth-bad-and-good-0

 

            Crypto market resumes bullish trend.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/market-commentary-education/bitcoin-and-the-whole-crypto-market-resume-the-bullish-trend?post=511808

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

The July Dallas Fed manufacturing index came in at +0.9 versus estimates of -8.0.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/07/28/dallas-fed-manufacturing-business-conditions-stabilize-july-2025

 

                        International

 

June UK consumer credit grew L1.4 billion versus expectations of +Ll.2 billion.

 

                        Other

 

                          Real US exports flatlining.

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/07/us-real-exports-flatlining-despite-rising-row-gdp-depreciated-dollar

 

                          Home ownership at lowest level since 2009.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/07/28/home-ownership-rate-q2-2025

 

                          The shock resistant US economy (an optimist’s take).

                          https://www.ft.com/content/70305b6c-6e16-4e42-b336-35eebb9802fb

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Inflation mystification ails the Fed.

              https://www.forbes.com/sites/johntamny/2025/07/27/ben-bernanke-and-janet-yellens-inflation-mystification-ails-the-fed/

 

              Fed rates are not restrictive.

https://wolfstreet.com/2025/07/27/feds-rates-not-restrictive-for-markets-financial-conditions-ultra-loose-manias-form-margin-debt-blows-out-junk-bonds-party-in-la-la-land/

 

 

              Trump is changing the Fed, even without firing Powell.

              https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/28/economy/trump-powell-federal-reserve

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              The fiscal future.

              https://acrobat.adobe.com/id/urn:aaid:sc:VA6C2:910d107d-4b66-4724-b192-0ab67b228c74?viewer%21megaVerb=group-discover

 

            Tariffs

 

              Signing a trade deal doesn’t mean that things will get better.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-07-27/how-trump-s-tariffs-are-already-stunting-world-economic-growth?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

 

     Investing

 

            JP Morgan remains tactically bullish.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tactically-bullish-jpmorgan-traders-weigh-bullbear-case-after-biggest-bounce-covid

 

            Beware of the risks when investing in private equity deals.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/07/28/is-private-equity-wolf-sheeps-clothing

 

            Seven rules of stock market bubbles.

            https://www.optimisticallie.com/p/rules-of-stock-market-bubbles

 

            Five signals bubble trackers are watching.

            https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/five-signs-of-a-market-bubble-investors-are-tracking-ddbea944?st=F6QVUw&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

 

            Is there true value in gold or crypto?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/precious-metals/true-value-crypto-or-gold

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

UPS non-GAAP EPS of $1.55 misses by $0.02, revenue of $21.2B beats by $350M.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            The shipwreck that sparked a panic.

            How one shipwreck and a cargo of lost gold sparked a U.S. financial panic | National Geographic

 

The story of the recovery effort by treasurer hunters is told in a book entitled ‘Ship of Gold in the Deep Blue Sea’.  It is a good read.

 

 

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