Thursday, July 10, 2025

The Morning Call---For better or worse, Trump now owns this economy

 

The Morning Call

 

7/10/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/big-tech-leads-stocks-higher-bonds-bitcoin-bullion-bid

 

                Wednesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

 

            Momentum meltdown just getting started.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/momentum-meltdown-just-getting-started-ms-quants-warn

 

            On the other hand…

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/easy-money-forced-buyers-melt-mirage-mind-trap-doors

           

            And.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/great-set-melt-trade

 

            Is the ‘Trump collar’ about to lapse?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/trump-collar-has-saved-stocks-seasonality-vol-about-turn-higher

 

            The latest from one Goldman trader.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hedges-h2-goldman-outlines-troublesome-tails-ahead

 

            But here is another with a different take.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/summer-carry-not-priced-top-goldman-macro-trader-says-dont-fight-tape

 

            An optimistic note from Ed Yardini.

            Uncertainty & Breadth

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 227,000 versus consensus of 235,000.

 

                        International

 

                          June Japanese PPI came in at -0.2%, in line.

 

                          June German CPI was +0.1%, also in line.

 

                        Other

 

                          The betting markets’ predictions on economic and financial issues.

                          https://www.capitalspectator.com/betting-market-economic-and-financial-predictions-09-july-2025/#more-24256

 

            Monetary Policy

 

The FOMC released the minutes from its last meeting. (1) they have no idea what the impact of tariffs will be, (2) they do think that the economy is slowing, and (3) they expect QT to end next February.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-minutes-11

 

              Abundant versus scarce reserves.

              https://thedailyeconomy.org/article/chairman-powells-curious-case-for-abundant-reserves/

 

              Are lower rates the cure for inflation?

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/might-lower-rates-be-cure-higher-prices

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              For better or worse, Trump now owns this economy.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/09/us/politics/trump-bill-tariffs-economy.html

 

              As usual, the liberal fear mongers are focusing on the wrong thing.

              https://committeetounleashprosperity.com/hotlines/were-all-going-to-die-from-the-big-beautiful-bill/

 

            Tariffs

 

It is a very rare occurrence that I would link to a Paul Krugman op ed. But here is one I generally agree with.

https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/the-tariff-beatings-will-continue

 

              The only winner is the government.

              https://reason.com/2025/07/08/the-only-winner-is-the-government-says-american-bow-tie-ceo-facing-higher-tariff-costs/

 

              The paradox of Trump’s trade policy.

              https://www.axios.com/2025/07/08/trump-tariffs-august-1-deadline

 

     Investing

 

              Either the stock market or the bond market is wrong.

              https://www.apolloacademy.com/inconsistent-markets/

 

              Gold as a safe asset.

              https://mrzepczynski.blogspot.com/2025/07/gold-as-safe-asset-alternative-to-debt.html

 

              Real interest rates are a catalyst for a dollar bounce.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/real-rates-are-catalyst-near-term-dollar-bounce

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Paychex (NASDAQ:PAYX) declared $1.08/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Alexander the Great’s path to power.

            How Alexander the Great's daddy issues reshaped the world | National Geographic

 

            The swamp always wins.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/swamp-always-wins-why-outsiders-break-when-they-enter-washington

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

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