The Morning Call--The rapidly approaching Minsky Moment

 

The Morning Call

 

7/15/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/gold-oil-crypto-pumpndump-amid-incredibly-quiet-stock-trading-ahead-cpi

 

                Monday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

 

            More charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/everythings-ripping-until-it-isnt-systematics-chase-jgbs-crack-bonds-btc-wobbles

 

            Golden cross déjà vu.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/golden-cross-deja-vu-2020-2023-2025-melt-playbook-reloaded

 

            Weekly technical review.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/commodities/gold-is-correcting-in-time-not-space?post=509209

           

            Goldman reaffirms $4000 gold target.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/precious-metals/goldman-re-affirms-gold-4000-target-chinas-stealth-buying-continues

 

            Call to dollar contrarians.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/calling-all-contrarians-1

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

June CPI was reported at +0.3%, in line; June core CPI was +0.2% versus +0.3%.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/tariff-ic-core-consumer-price-inflation-cooler-expected-june

 

The July NY Fed manufacturing index was +5.5 versus predictions of -9.0.

 

                        International

 

May EU industrial production was up 1.7% versus consensus of +0.9%; the July economic sentiment index was 36.1 versus 37.8.

 

The July German economic sentiment index was 52.7 versus expectations of 50.3; the July current conditions index was -59.5 versus -66.0.

 

                        Other

 

                          The dollar is in trouble but not for the reasons you think.

                          https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/11/opinion/dollar-money-currency-payment.html

 

                          The loss of dollar dominance.

                          https://mrzepczynski.blogspot.com/2025/07/the-loss-of-dollar-dominance.html

 

                          Why the US is growing faster than the EU.

                          https://www.wsj.com/opinion/al-gore-helped-the-u-s-surpass-europe-bastille-day-climate-economy-e0f6ad5a?mod=opinion_lead_pos10

 

                          Latest 2025 nowcast.

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/07/wsj-july-survey-2025-q4-q4-growth-at-1

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              The rapidly approaching Minsky Moment.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/07/14/moments-uncertain

           

            Tariffs

 

              Surviving Trump’s trade war.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/11/opinion/dollar-money-currency-payment.html

 

     Investing

 

            Emotion and fact.

            https://www.hunterlewisllc.com/insights/emotion-and-fact

 

            The bond market is reacting to an inflationary environment.

https://wolfstreet.com/2025/07/12/30-year-treasury-yield-jumps-to-4-96-despite-solid-auction-long-end-of-yield-curve-steepens-mortgage-rate-spread-historically-wide/

 

            First half review of the financial markets.

            https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/07/financial-and-commodity-markets-since.html

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

BlackRock Non-GAAP EPS of $12.05 beats by $1.23, revenue of $5.42B misses by $40M

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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