Wednesday, July 9, 2025

The Morning Call---Dollar bears beware

 

The Morning Call

 

7/9/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/violent-moves-hedge-funds-hammered-shorts-squeezed-momo-meltdown-returns

 

                        Tuesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

 

            Dollar bears beware.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/dollar-bears-beware-youre-not-early

 

            The latest from Goldman.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/market-has-ignored-worsening-macro

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

  Month to date retail chain store sales grew more rapidly than in the prior    week.

 

 Weekly mortgage applications rose 9.4% while purchase applications were   up 9.0%.

 

                          Consumer credit card debt unexpectedly plunges.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/credit-card-debt-unexpectedly-plunges-student-loans-soar

 

                        International

 

                          June Chinese CPI came in at -0.1% versus estimates of 0.0%.

 

  June Japanese YoY machine tool orders fell 0.5% versus predictions of +3.4%.

 

                        Other

 

                          Real time civilian employment past peak?

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/07/real-time-civilian-employment-at-peak

 

                          Update on Q2 nowcast.

                          https://www.capitalspectator.com/rebound-outlook-softens-for-us-q2-gdp-nowcast/

 

                          Wholesale used car prices up 6% in June.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/07/wholesale-used-car-prices-increased-in.html

 

                          Housing market at risk of a severe downturn.

                          https://www.axios.com/2025/06/24/housing-market-price-growth-april

 

            Inflation

 

              What a depreciating dollar means for inflation.

              https://www.apolloacademy.com/the-10-depreciation-in-the-dollar-will-boost-inflation-by-0-3-percentage-points/

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Government debt is now $37 trillion. Should we be worried?

              https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1lj8rmyn5eo

 

              The Market will tell us when we have borrowed too much.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/07/08/markets_will_tell_us_when_weve_borrowed_too_much_1120497.html

 

            Tariffs

 

              Trump’s Vietnam agreement bodes poorly for future trade deals.

              https://www.cato.org/blog/trumps-vietnam-agreement-bodes-poorly-future-trade-deals

 

              Tariff uncertainty weighs on global growth.

                          https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/tariff-uncertainty-likely-to-weigh-on-global-growth-even-after-extended-talks-6111469a?mod=economy_lead_pos1

 

              Peak chaos theory confirmed.

              https://talkmarkets.com/content/commodities/the-peak-chaos-theory-confirmed?post=508096

 

     Investing

 

            A preview of second quarter earnings.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/07/08/2q-earnings

 

            Gold as a safe asset alternative to debt.

            https://mrzepczynski.blogspot.com/2025/07/gold-as-safe-asset-alternative-to-debt.html

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            The end of the stock market as we know it.

            https://gizmodo.com/the-end-of-the-stock-market-as-we-know-it-2000625351

 

            It is already happening in the bond market.

            https://www.ft.com/content/24133257-62eb-41f5-9778-0be200fd3b7d

 

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