The Morning Call
7/8/25
The
Market
Technical
Monday in the
charts
https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/tariff-tantrum-20-sends-stocks-bonds-lower-oil-dollar-surge
Monday in the technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
Pay attention to
the Japanese bond market.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/tickticktick-japan-bond-markets-fuse-lit
***This is a very
detailed explanation for the above. You may just want to read the conclusion.
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
The June business optimism
index was reported at 98.6 versus consensus of 98.7.
International
The May German
trade balance was E18.4 billion versus predictions of E15.5 billion.
Other
Unemployment claims as a recession indicator.
Lumber prices up 26% YoY.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/07/update-lumber-prices-up-26-yoy.html
Home prices continue to cool.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/07/july-ice-mortgage-monitor-home-prices.html
Overnight
News
US President Trump said regarding tariffs that
the August 1st deadline is firm but he is open to other ideas, while Trump said
he is close to making a trade deal with India and may adjust tariffs for some
countries.
White House
announced that President Trump signed an executive order extending the tariff
deadline to August 1st.
US reportedly
offered the EU a 10% tariff deal with caveats, although negotiations are still
fluid, with any trade agreement subject to final approval by US President
Trump, according to POLITICO.
EU Commission
President von der Leyen said Europe must show strength in trade negotiations
with the US. Thereafter, German Finance Minister says if the EU does not
reach a "fair" deal with the US, the bloc is ready to take countermeasures.
Japanese Tariff
Negotiator Akazawa held a call with US Commerce Secretary Lutnick. Agreed to
actively engage in trade negotiations. Auto sector is core to Japan's
economy, cannot tolerate the fact 25% tariffs on autos, and the auto parts
tariff is inflicting huge losses on Japanese firms. No point in striking a US
deal without an autos agreement.
South Korea will
step up trade negotiations with the US to win mutually beneficial results and
clear up uncertainties caused by tariffs, while it added that trade
talks with the US will be a chance to advance both countries' key industries
through the 'Renaissance Partnership'.
The UK is set
to miss the original deadline to close its steel/aluminum trade deal with the
US, according to Sky's Conway; Insiders say still some way from a breakthrough.
However, "they are hopeful Donald Trump won't raise UK tariffs from 25% to
50% for the time being, despite having promised to on July 9th".
Monetary
Policy
Trump’s destructive fight with the Fed over interest
rates.
Marking the progress of QT.
This
isn’t how you lower interest rates.
Fiscal
Policy
Bessent attempts
to sell the big, beautiful bill. For some reason he left out the big, beautiful
deficit.
https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/president-trumps-big-beautiful-bill-unleash-parallel-prosperity
Why social security is going bust?
https://mishtalk.com/economics/the-peak-65-moment-and-why-social-security-is-going-bust/
Tariffs
Trump extends tariff deadline to August 1st.
https://www.ft.com/content/613678ac-2e61-436b-9d0f-2a8f85a20dee
There is more.
Investing
At the crossroads.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/07/07/at-crossroads
Sentiment for stocks too high?
https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/sentiment-for-stocks-too-high?post=507876
Goldman looks at Q2 earnings season.
BofA still BTFD.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bofa-bets-btfd-resiliency-asymmetric-options-trade
The bond market’s struggle to price conflicting
risk factors.
https://www.capitalspectator.com/bond-market-will-struggle-to-price-in-conflicting-risk-factors/
Diminishing returns from alternative
investments.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
What makes
someone ‘cool’?
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/30/well/mind/cool-people-traits-study.html
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for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
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