Wednesday, July 30, 2025

The Morning Call---There are no free lunches

 

The Morning Call

 

7/30/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/stocks-drop-bonds-oil-pop-china-agrees-tariff-truce-trump-reiterates-russia-threats

 

            Tuesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

 

            Goldilocks still hanging around.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/goldilocks-us-room-right-now

 

            Nomura: hedge when you can not when you have to.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hedge-when-you-can-not-when-you-have-nomura-reflects-what-everybody-thinking-trump-collar

 

Busting three myths.

            https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/busting-three-myths/

 

            On the verge of a change in trend for the dollar and gold.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/commodities/on-the-verge-monthly-highs-in-usd-monthly-lows-in-gdxj?post=512174

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications fell 3.8% while purchase applications were down 5.7%.

 

                          Month to date retail chain store sales grew slower than in the prior week.

                       

  The May Case Shiller home price index rose 0.4% versus consensus of    +0.6%.

     https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/07/29/sp-corelogic-case-shiller-home-price-index-may-2025

 

June job openings (JOLTS) totaled 7.43 million versus projections of 7.55 million.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/07/29/jolts-report-job-openings-june-2025

 

Q2 advanced GDP growth was 3.0% versus estimates of +2.4%; real consumer spending was up 1.4% versus up 0.9%; the PCE was +2.1% versus +2.9%.

 

The July ADP private payroll report showed jobs increased by 104,000 versus expectations of 76,000.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/employers-more-optimistic-consumers-adp-reports-big-rebound-jobs-july

 

The July consumer confidence index came in at 97.2 versus forecasts of 95.8.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/07/29/consumer-confidence-improves-slightly-in-july

 

                                                 

                        International

 

June German flash retail sales were up 1.0% versus predictions of +0.5%; Q2 flash GDP growth was -0.1%, in line.

 

Q2 EU flash GDP growth was +0.1% versus consensus of 0.0%; the July economic sentiment index was 95.5 versus 94.5; the July industrial sentiment index was -10.4 versus -11.0; the July services sentiment index was 4.1 versus 3.3.

 

                        Other

 

                          The shelter component of CPI is likely headed lower.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/07/repeat-home-sales-and-leading-apartment.html

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Pop goes the deficit.

              https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/5420761-us-deficit-spending-debt-sustainability/

 

              Counterpoint.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/07/29/the_fatal_conceit_of_national_debt_hawkery_1125072.html

 

              Trump considering ‘pocket recissions’.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/political/white-house-considers-pocket-rescissions-sidestep-congress-what-know

 

            Inflation

 

              What is driving inflation?

              https://ritholtz.com/2025/07/what-is-driving-inflation/

 

            Tariffs

 

              Trump’s trade war undermines the status of the dollar.

              https://thedailyeconomy.org/article/trumps-trade-war-undermines-the-dollars-global-reserve-status/

 

              There are no free lunches.

              https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-the-grand-illusions/?src=news

 

              Counterpoint.

              https://www.ft.com/content/72e657cf-9552-45ac-b1dc-16a40ae8eb41

 

              There is a positive side to the tariffs.

              https://www.wsj.com/business/u-s-exporters-get-welcome-surprise-in-trump-tax-law-525ef529?mod=economy_lead_story

 

              Trump is winning the trade war, but is it really a win for the US?

              https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/29/business/economy/trump-tariffs-economy.html

 

              The US/EU trade deal.

              https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2025/07/the-eu-usa-trade-deal.html

 

              Tariffs and the Campbell tomato soup inflation indicator.

              https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/07/campbells-tomato-soup-prices-facing.html

 

              What happens if Trump’s tariffs are ruled illegal?

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/07/what-happens-if-ieep-tariffs-are-rule-illegal

           

              US/China agree to extend trade truce.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-china-agree-extend-tariff-truce

 

     Investing

 

            The Market is looking through the tariffs.

            https://www.ft.com/content/2fdfd736-80dc-47d0-9c5e-874d3b66d3f1

 

            Corporations to buy 10% of ether.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/corporations-have-acquired-1-ether-supply-stanchart-sees-growth-10

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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