The Morning Call
7/30/25
The
Market
Technical
Tuesday in the
charts.
Tuesday
in the technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
Goldilocks still
hanging around.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/goldilocks-us-room-right-now
Nomura: hedge when
you can not when you have to.
Busting three
myths.
https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/busting-three-myths/
On the verge of a
change in trend for the dollar and gold.
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly mortgage applications
fell 3.8% while purchase applications were down 5.7%.
Month to date retail chain store sales grew
slower than in the prior week.
The May
Case Shiller home price index rose 0.4% versus consensus of +0.6%.
June job openings
(JOLTS) totaled 7.43 million versus projections of 7.55 million.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/07/29/jolts-report-job-openings-june-2025
Q2 advanced GDP growth
was 3.0% versus estimates of +2.4%; real consumer spending was up 1.4% versus
up 0.9%; the PCE was +2.1% versus +2.9%.
The July ADP private
payroll report showed jobs increased by 104,000 versus expectations of 76,000.
The July consumer confidence
index came in at 97.2 versus forecasts of 95.8.
International
June German flash
retail sales were up 1.0% versus predictions of +0.5%; Q2 flash GDP growth was -0.1%,
in line.
Q2 EU flash GDP
growth was +0.1% versus consensus of 0.0%; the July economic sentiment index
was 95.5 versus 94.5; the July industrial sentiment index was -10.4 versus
-11.0; the July services sentiment index was 4.1 versus 3.3.
Other
The shelter component of CPI is likely headed lower.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/07/repeat-home-sales-and-leading-apartment.html
Fiscal
Policy
Pop goes the deficit.
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/5420761-us-deficit-spending-debt-sustainability/
Counterpoint.
Trump considering ‘pocket recissions’.
Inflation
What is
driving inflation?
https://ritholtz.com/2025/07/what-is-driving-inflation/
Tariffs
Trump’s trade war undermines the status of the
dollar.
https://thedailyeconomy.org/article/trumps-trade-war-undermines-the-dollars-global-reserve-status/
There
are no free lunches.
https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-the-grand-illusions/?src=news
Counterpoint.
https://www.ft.com/content/72e657cf-9552-45ac-b1dc-16a40ae8eb41
There is a positive side to the tariffs.
Trump is winning the trade war, but is it
really a win for the US?
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/29/business/economy/trump-tariffs-economy.html
The US/EU trade deal.
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2025/07/the-eu-usa-trade-deal.html
Tariffs and the Campbell tomato soup inflation
indicator.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/07/campbells-tomato-soup-prices-facing.html
What happens if Trump’s tariffs are ruled
illegal?
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/07/what-happens-if-ieep-tariffs-are-rule-illegal
US/China agree to extend trade truce.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-china-agree-extend-tariff-truce
Investing
The Market is looking
through the tariffs.
https://www.ft.com/content/2fdfd736-80dc-47d0-9c5e-874d3b66d3f1
Corporations to
buy 10% of ether.
https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/corporations-have-acquired-1-ether-supply-stanchart-sees-growth-10
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