The Morning Call--Complacency in both stock and bond markets

 

The Morning Call

 

5/7/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/squeezey-stock-market-extends-gains-bonds-bullion-bid

 

            Sentiment no longer a headwind.

            https://allstarcharts.com/sentiment-no-longer-a-headwind/

 

            Sell in May and go away?

            https://www.lpl.com/research/blog/sell-in-may-and-go-away.html

 

            China is buying gold like there is no tomorrow.

            https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/05/business/china-gold-price.html

 

            Ignore the noise as crude corrects.

            https://allstarcharts.com/ignore-the-noise-as-crude-corrects/

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                        International

 

The March German trade balance was E22.3 billion versus forecasts of E22.4 billion; March factory orders fell 0.4% versus +0.5%.

 

The April Japanese services PMI was 54.3 versus expectations of 54.6; the April composite PMI was 52.3 versus 52.6.

 

The April EU construction PMI was 41.9 versus estimates of 43.8; the April German construction PMI was 37.5 versus 40.0; the April UK construction PMI was 53.0 versus 50.4.

 

                        Other

 

            The Fed

 

              Fed member Bowman apparently wasn’t listening.

              https://wolfstreet.com/2024/05/05/the-reasons-feds-bowman-is-willing-to-hike-rates-if-incoming-data-indicate-that-progress-on-inflation-has-stalled-or-reversed/

 

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              In praise of budget cutting.

              https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/

 

            Inflation

 

              The CPI and PCE differentials.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/05/cpi-and-pce-deflator-differential-and-differences-edition-lxvii

 

            Recession

 

              The argument for recession.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2024/05/05/liminal-space-john-mauldin

 

              Citi says economy is heading for a hard landing.

              https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-economy-headed-hard-landing-222148023.html

 

              Surging distress in commercial collateralized loan obligations.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/surging-distress-cre-clo-loans-spurs-lenders-rush-repurchase-delinquent-multifamily

 

    Bottom line

 

            Was April’s correction noise or a signal?

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/was-aprils-correction-noise-or-signal-for-global-markets/

 

            Credit spreads smack of complacency.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/credit-smacks-complacency-spreads-collapse

 

            As does the VIX.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/fear-reset

 

            How not to invest.

            https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/charlie-munger-how-not-invest

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Tuesday morning humor.

            https://babylonbee.com/news/9-changes-disney-is-bringing-to-the-chosen

 

            The beginner’s guide to watching a Formula One race.

            https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/interactive/2024/formula-one-guide-beginners-flags-tires-colors/

           

 

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