The Morning Call
5/15/24
The
Market
Technical
Tuesday in the
charts.
Note: the S&P
pushed through the upper boundary of its short term uptrend, keeping the upward
momentum intact. Next stop ~5264, the all-time high.
How low can the
VIX go?
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/2017-deja-vu-all-over-again-bofa-asks-how-low-can-vix-go
And what does it
mean?
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/bullish-bulls-panic-evaporates
The state of the
stock market in 18 charts.
https://www.tker.co/p/stock-market-charts-may-2024
Too soon to get
bearish.
Moving Average Crossovers Suggest The Bull Is Back -
RIA (realinvestmentadvice.com)
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly mortgage applications
rose 0.5% while purchase applications were down 0.2%.
Month to date retail chain store sales grew faster
than in the prior week.
April CPI was up
0.3% versus consensus of up 0.4%; core CPI was +0.3%, in line.
April retail sales
were flat versus expectations of up 0.4%; ex autos they were up 0.2%, in line.
The May New York
Fed manufacturing index came in at -15.6 versus expectations of -10.0.
International
Q1 EU (2nd
estimate) GDP growth was +0.3%, in line; March industrial production was up
0.6% versus +0.5%.
Other
Household debt continues to rise.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/05/14/household-debt-credit-report-q1-2024
The
Fed
Why forecasters disagree about interest rates.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/14/business/economy/interest-rate-forecasts.html
Fiscal
Policy
The case for raising taxes on the rich.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/05/03/opinion/global-billionaires-tax.html
Counterpoint.
Free trade with free nations.
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2024/05/free-trade-with-free-nations.html
More on Trump’s proposed tariff policy.
https://cafehayek.com/2024/05/benighted-lighthizer.html
And not to be outdone, Biden ups the ante.
https://fortune.com/2024/05/12/joe-biden-us-tariffs-chinese-goods-electric-vehicle-duties-trump/
Trade between US, China and the rest of the
world declines.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/05/trade-between-us-china-and-rest-of.html
Inflation
A close look at yesterday’s PPI number.
Recession
Questions on the economy.
https://alhambrapartners.com/2024/05/12/weekly-market-pulse-question-time/?src=news
Manufacturing production and employment over
the long term.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/05/manufacturing-over-the-long-term
Bottom line.
The Alpha Cycle.
https://behaviouralinvestment.com/2024/05/14/the-alpha-cycle/
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
3M (NYSE:MMM)
declares $0.70/share quarterly
dividend,
Cummins (NYSE:CMI)
declares $1.68/share quarterly
dividend, in line with previous.
What
I am reading today
The
normalization of lying.
https://klementoninvesting.substack.com/p/normalisation-of-deviance
Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
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