Wednesday, May 15, 2024

The Morning Call---Too soon to be bearish

 

The Morning Call

 

5/15/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/retail-wrecking-crew-hammers-hedgies-again-marketspowell-shrug-stagflation-signals

 

Note: the S&P pushed through the upper boundary of its short term uptrend, keeping the upward momentum intact. Next stop ~5264, the all-time high.

 

            How low can the VIX go?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/2017-deja-vu-all-over-again-bofa-asks-how-low-can-vix-go

 

            And what does it mean?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/bullish-bulls-panic-evaporates

 

            The state of the stock market in 18 charts.

            https://www.tker.co/p/stock-market-charts-may-2024

 

            Too soon to get bearish.

            Moving Average Crossovers Suggest The Bull Is Back - RIA (realinvestmentadvice.com)

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications rose 0.5% while purchase applications were down 0.2%.

                       

                           Month to date retail chain store sales grew faster than in the prior week.

 

April CPI was up 0.3% versus consensus of up 0.4%; core CPI was +0.3%, in line.

 

April retail sales were flat versus expectations of up 0.4%; ex autos they were up 0.2%, in line.

 

The May New York Fed manufacturing index came in at -15.6 versus expectations of -10.0.

 

                        International

 

Q1 EU (2nd estimate) GDP growth was +0.3%, in line; March industrial production was up 0.6% versus +0.5%.

 

                        Other

 

                          Household debt continues to rise.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/05/14/household-debt-credit-report-q1-2024

 

            The Fed

 

              Why forecasters disagree about interest rates.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/14/business/economy/interest-rate-forecasts.html

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              The case for raising taxes on the rich.

              https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/05/03/opinion/global-billionaires-tax.html

 

              Counterpoint.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2024/05/14/no_the_rich_dont_pay_less_in_tax_than_working_class_1031401.html

 

              Free trade with free nations.

              https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2024/05/free-trade-with-free-nations.html

 

              More on Trump’s proposed tariff policy.

              https://cafehayek.com/2024/05/benighted-lighthizer.html

 

              And not to be outdone, Biden ups the ante.

              https://fortune.com/2024/05/12/joe-biden-us-tariffs-chinese-goods-electric-vehicle-duties-trump/

 

              Trade between US, China and the rest of the world declines.

              https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/05/trade-between-us-china-and-rest-of.html

               

            Inflation

 

              A close look at yesterday’s PPI number.

              https://wolfstreet.com/2024/05/14/ppi-inflation-acts-up-in-a-nasty-way-it-spikes-after-big-downward-revisions/

 

            Recession

 

              Questions on the economy.

              https://alhambrapartners.com/2024/05/12/weekly-market-pulse-question-time/?src=news

 

              Manufacturing production and employment over the long term.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/05/manufacturing-over-the-long-term

 

     Bottom line.

 

            The Alpha Cycle.

            https://behaviouralinvestment.com/2024/05/14/the-alpha-cycle/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

3M (NYSE:MMM) declares $0.70/share quarterly dividend,

Cummins (NYSE:CMI) declares $1.68/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

What I am reading today

 

            The normalization of lying.

            https://klementoninvesting.substack.com/p/normalisation-of-deviance

           

 

 

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