The Morning Call---The cost of Trump's tariffs

 

The Morning Call

 

5/24/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nvda-tops-25-trillion-traders-sell-everything-else-good-news

 

            Chasing the Market is a late trade.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/3-charts-we-are-watching-life-after-nvda-earnings

 

            Market trends continue to lean bullish.

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/market-trends-continue-to-lean-into-a-bullish-signal/

 

            Rising interest from fund managers driving metal prices higher.

            https://www.ft.com/content/65f473b7-1f0d-4570-bb6a-05ab9e5fed6c

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

April durable goods orders were up 0.7% versus predictions of down 0.8%; ex transportation, they were up 0.4% versus +0.1%.

 

April new home sales fell 4.7% versus consensus of -4.4%; building permits were down 3.0%, in line.

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/05/new-home-sales-decrease-to-634000.html

 

The May flash manufacturing PMI was 50.9 versus projections of 50.0; the May flash services PMI was 54.8 versus 51.3; the May flash composite PMI was 54.4 versus 51.1.

 

The May Kansas City Fed manufacturing index came in at -1 versus estimates of -8.

 

                        International

 

                          Q1 German GDP grew 0.2%, in line.

 

                          April Japanese CPI was +0.2% versus expectations of 0.0%.

 

April UK retail sales fell 2.3% versus forecasts of -0.4%; ex fuel, they were down 2.0% versus -0.6%; May consumer confidence was -17 versus -18.

 

May EU consumer confidence was -14.3 versus predictions of -14.2.

 

                        Other

 

            The Fed

 

              Business inflation remained unchanged in May.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/market-trends-continue-to-lean-into-a-bullish-signal/

 

              What a Trump election could mean for the Fed.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/23/business/economy/trump-federal-reserve.html

 

              The source of financial instability.

              https://www.econlib.org/fear-of-financial-instability/

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Creating jobs that destroy wealth.

              https://www.aier.org/article/creating-so-many-jobs-that-destroy-wealth/

 

            Inflation

 

              How far can goods prices drop?

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-23/fed-s-inflation-debate-shifts-to-how-much-goods-prices-can-drop?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

 

            Recession

 

              Another ‘no recession’ indicator.

              https://wolfstreet.com/2024/05/23/remember-headlines-2-weeks-ago-labor-market-suddenly-weakens-as-unemployment-claims-spike-just-got-unwound/

 

              Soft data keeps improving.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/sp-global-says-us-business-activity-its-strongest-two-years

 

The risk of recession may not be zero, but is predicting it two years from now of any investment benefit?

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/risk-recession-isnt-zero

 

            Tariffs

 

              The cost of Trump’s tariffs.

              https://reason.com/2024/05/22/trumps-proposed-tariffs-would-cost-families-1700-annually/

 

              How effective have tariffs been in the past?

  https://thedispatch.com/newsletter/capitolism/on-bidens-new-china-tariffs-history-provides-good-reasons-for-almost-everyone-to-worry/?utm_source=ActiveCampaign&utm_medium=email&utm_content=On%20Biden%20s%20New%20China%20Tariffs%2C%20History%20Provides%20Good%20Reasons%20for%20Almost%20Everyone%20to%20Worry&utm_campaign=Capitolism_Everyone_On%20Biden%20s%20New%20China%20Tariffs%2C%20History%20Provides%20Good%20Reasons%20for%20Almost%20Everyone%20to%20Worry

 

 

            Geopolitics

 

              Political shellshocks.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/political-shellshocks-loom-markets

 

            The coronavirus

 

              The great pandemic walkback (I ignored the conspiracy portion of this article).

              https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/great-pandemic-walkback

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Combat in the Bronze Age.

            These modern soldiers put Bronze Age armor to the test–how did it hold up? (nationalgeographic.com)           

 

 

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