Wednesday, May 1, 2024

The Morning Call---The end of magical debt thinking

 

The Morning Call

 

5/1/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/gold-flowers-amid-april-stagflation-showers-stocks-bonds-crypto-crushed

 

            Buybacks about to restart.

            Bullish Sentiment Index Reverses With Buybacks Resuming - RIA (realinvestmentadvice.com)

 

            Commodity price rises have just begun.

            https://allstarcharts.com/yen-crashing-what-you-need-to-know/

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications were down 2.4% while purchase applications were down 2.0%.

 

                          Month to date retail chain store sales grew faster than in the prior week.

 

The February home price index was up 1.2% versus consensus of +0.1%; the February Case Shiller home price index was +0.9% versus +0.6%.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/04/30/house-price-index-fhfa-rebounds-february-2024

 

The Q1 employment cost index was up 1.2% versus expectations of +1.0%.

 

The April Chicago PMI came in at 37.9 versus estimates of 45.0.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/04/30/chicago-pmi-falls-to-17-month-low

 

The April consumer confidence index was 97.0 versus predictions of 104.0.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/04/30/consumer-confidence-falls-to-lowest-level-since-july-2022

 

The April ADP private payroll report showed total jobs increased 192,000 versus forecasts of 175,000.

                                    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/adp-employment-report-strong-april-tech-sector-lost-jobs

 

                                               

                        International

 

  The April Japanese manufacturing PMI was 49.6 versus projections of         49.9; the April UK manufacturing PMI was 49.1 versus 48.7.

 

                        Other

 

            The Fed

 

              From the Fed whisperer: Fed likely to keep rates high for longer.

              https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/federal-reserve-meeting-interest-rates-inflation-6dcb05e8

 

              Trump’s delusional plan to ‘have a say’ in setting interest rates.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2024/04/30/donalds_plan_to_run_the_fed_mocks_trump_and_his_critics_1028224.html

 

              The QE program cost too much.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-04-30/the-fed-s-quantitative-easing-program-cost-too-much?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Be careful what you wish for.

              https://alhambrapartners.com/2024/04/28/weekly-market-pulse-be-careful-what-you-wish-for/?src=news

 

              The end of magical debt thinking.

              https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/developed-countries-public-borrowing-spree-bill-comes-due-by-kenneth-rogoff-2024-04

 

            Inflation

 

              It was the pandemic, stupid.

              https://stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/its-the-pandemic-stupid

 

            Recession

 

              Probability of a recession falling again.

              https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/04/recession-probability-falls-after.html

 

            Geopolitics

 

              What ten years of meddling in Ukraine hath wrought.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/political/mate-what-10-years-us-meddlingiin-ukraine-have-wrought-spoiler-alert-not-democracy

 

            War in Middle East

 

              Pentagon admits US troops could be drawn into Gaza war.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/zh-geopolitical-week-ahead-pentagon-admits-us-troops-could-soon-be-drawn-gaza-war

 

    Bottom line

 

            The problem with comparing your performance to an index.

            https://klementoninvesting.substack.com/p/dont-tell-me-how-i-am-doing

 

 

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Mastercard press release (NYSE:MA): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $3.31 beats by $0.07.

Revenue of $6.3B (+10.5% Y/Y) misses by $40M.

 

Automatic Data Processing press release (NASDAQ:ADP): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.88 beats by $0.10.

Revenue of $5.3B (+7% Y/Y) beats by $70M.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Wednesday morning humor.

            https://babylonbee.com/news/10-essential-life-skills-your-kid-will-learn-at-an-ivy-league-university

 

            Quote of the day.

            https://cafehayek.com/2024/04/bonus-quotation-of-the-day-1027.html

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

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