The Morning Call--The inflation debate

 

The Morning Call

 

5/21/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/crypto-soars-ether-etf-hope-downbeat-dimon-sends-gold-record-er-highs

 

            The most new highs in years.

            https://allstarcharts.com/most-new-highs-in-years-2/

 

            Bears turning bulls.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/bears-turning-bulls

 

            Gold hits new high.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-05-20/cooling-apartment-rents-won-t-last-long?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                        International

 

The March EU trade balance was E24.1 billion versus forecasts of E19.9 billion; March YoY construction output rose 0.1% versus -1.8%.

 

April German PPI was up 0.2%, in line.

 

The May UK industrial trends orders index was -33 versus projections of -20.

 

                        Other

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Deficient reporting.

              https://cafehayek.com/2024/05/deficient-reporting.html

 

            Inflation

 

This from my favorite optimist. His outlook is for slower growth and lower inflation---the latter being the opposite of my forecast. Of course, he is a professional economist. So act accordingly. That said, until I see some sanity in our fiscal/monetary policies and weaker employment, I am sticking with my story.

https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2024/05/charts-with-message.html

 

              More on the inflation debate.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2024/05/20/inflation-conversation-john-mauldin

 

I linked to an article two weeks ago that argued that apartment rents were on their way higher and that would have an impact on the owner’s equivalent rent portion of CPI. The import being that inflation was unlikely to decline as much as many think (see above). Here is more on that point.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-05-20/cooling-apartment-rents-won-t-last-long?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            Recession

 

              US GDP is recovering faster than other advanced economies.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/05/fed-board-why-is-the-u-s-gdp-recovering-faster-than-other-advanced-economies

 

              Borrowing conditions for corporations are improving.

              https://www.ft.com/content/97044e7e-ccf7-4b87-95f6-8aeee7ea0e80

 

            China

 

              Trade war. What is it good for?

              https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/05/18/biden-trump-trade-00158499

 

     Bottom line

 

            How long can good times keep rolling?

            https://www.ft.com/content/b6bb50b9-4f4e-4acb-ad5f-90d5ac3beaa5

 

            Investment advice from Bill Miller.

            https://www.investmenttalk.co/p/a-masterclass-with-bill-miller

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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