The Morning Call---What is Buffett's cash hoarding telling us ?

 

The Morning Call

 

5/23/24

 

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hawkish-fed-minutes-hammer-stocks-bonds-gold-oil

 

            The shorts are evaporating.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/evaporated-shorts

 

            Five current takeaways.

            https://allstarcharts.com/may-mid-month-conference-call-5-key-takeaways/

 

            A potential problem for the bulls this summer.

            https://stockcharts.com/articles/tradingplaces/2024/05/one-potentially-big-problem-is-253.html

 

            Junk bonds join the rally.

            https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/risky-bonds-join-the-everything-rally-3ca8b318?st=v893kpkz9vaiqrl&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

 

            Is the dollar going lower?

            https://allstarcharts.com/dollar-down-the-10-year-says-yes/

 

            And what does that mean for inflation?

            https://alhambrapartners.com/2024/05/20/the-good-news-on-inflation/

 

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 215,000 versus forecasts of 220,000.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-initial-jobless-claims-refuse-budge-near-record-lows

 

The April Chicago national activity index came in at -.23 versus expectations of +.16.

 

                          April existing home sales fell 1.9% versus consensus of +0.5%.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/05/22/existing-home-sales-fall-1-9-in-april

 

                        International

 

The May Japanese flash manufacturing PMI was 50.5 versus predictions of 49.7; the flash services PMI was 53.6 versus 53.8; the flash composite PMI was 52.4 versus 52.2; the May German flash manufacturing PMI was 45.4 versus 43.1; the flash services PMI was 53.9 versus 53.5; the flash composite PMI was 52.2 versus 51.0; the May EU flash manufacturing PMI was 47.4 versus 46.2; the flash services PMI was 53.3 versus 53.5; the flash composite PMI was 52.3 versus 52.0; the May UK flash manufacturing PMI was 51.3 versus 49.5; the flash services PMI was 52.9 versus 54.7; the flash composite PMI was 52.8 versus 54.0.

 

                        Other

 

                          Architecture billings decline in April.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/05/aia-architecture-billings-decline-in.html

 

            The Fed

 

The just released minutes from the last FOMC meeting were more bearish than expected (or Powell’s subsequent comments). More of the Fed’s ‘on the one hand, on the other hand’ chickens**t narrative.

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/05/fomc-minutes-recent-increases-in.html

 

            Inflation

 

              Why are auto insurance rates rising so much?

    https://www.city-journal.org/article/how-government-is-driving-auto-insurance-rates-higher?utm_source=mailchimp&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=cjdaily

 

 

            Recession

 

               Update on Q2 nowcast.

               https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-economy-still-on-track-for-modest-pickup-in-growth-for-q2/

 

               New vehicle supplies turn to glut.

              https://wolfstreet.com/2024/05/21/new-vehicle-supply-turns-to-glut-for-many-brands-automakers-roll-out-incentives-but-not-nearly-enough/

 

              Cracks in the consumer armor.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/cracks-armour-resilient-consumer

 

            Tariffs

 

              The motivation for tariffs.

              https://www.aier.org/article/bootlegger-in-a-baptists-mask/

 

              Protectionists cheap tricks.

              https://cafehayek.com/2024/05/protectionists-cheap-tricks.html

 

    Bottom line

 

            S&P dividend forecast.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/05/spring-2024-snapshot-of-future-for-s.html

 

            What is Buffett’s cash hoard telling us?

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2024/05/22/buffetts-cash-hoard-market-warning-lance-roberts

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

McDonald's (NYSE:MCD) declares $1.67/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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