The Morning Call---Are the secular trends changing?

 

The Morning Call

 

5/22/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-flat-fearless-vol-sellers-continue-push-ahead-nvdafomc-mins

 

            No time to be bearish.

            https://allstarcharts.com/permabears-hate-nashville/

 

            The Market performance following periods of extreme volatility.

            https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/extreme-nasdaq-extremes

 

            The Market performance in an election year.

            https://ofdollarsanddata.com/how-does-the-stock-market-perform-in-an-election-year/

 

            Margin debt down 1.1% in April.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/05/21/margin-debt-down-april-2024

 

            The dollar rally falters.

            https://www.ft.com/content/27a1864b-53e8-4c8c-afdc-b7763ed42363

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications were up 1.9% while purchase applications were down 1.0%.

 

                          Month to date retail chain store sales grew slower than in the prior week.

 

                        International

 

March Japanese machine orders were up 2.9% versus estimates of -2.2%; the April trade balance was -Y462.4 billion versus -Y339.5 billion.

 

April UK CPI was +0.3% versus predictions of +0.2%; core CPI was +0.9% versus +0.7%.

 

                        Other

 

                          YoY LA port traffic up in April.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/05/la-port-traffic-increased-year-over.html

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Addressing the debt bomb.

              https://fee.org/articles/is-it-time-to-hold-a-convention-of-the-states-to-address-the-debt-bomb/

 

              Global bankers suddenly worried about US national debt.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/global-bankers-are-suddenly-worried-about-soaring-us-national-debt

 

            Recession

 

              Picking a peak in economic activity.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/is-the-yield-curve-still-relevant-an-economist-clarifies/

 

              A detailed look at household credit.

              https://assets.realclear.com/files/2024/05/2428_ny_fed_-_hh_debt_q1_2024.pdf

 

            Geopolitics

 

              The wrath of Khan.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/wrath-khan-or-why-some-point-lack-global-rule-law-will-matter-mightily

 

     Bottom line.

 

            Are the secular trends changing? (must read)

            https://alhambrapartners.com/2024/05/19/weekly-market-pulse-ch-ch-changes/?src=news

 

            What an aging population means for investing.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-21/what-a-world-growing-older-fast-means-for-investing?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            Expected future S&P earnings.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/05/spring-2024-snapshot-of-expected-future.html

 

            Benchmarking your portfolio may have more risk than you think.

            Benchmarking Your Portfolio May Have More Risk Than You Think - RIA (realinvestmentadvice.com)

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Williams-Sonoma press release (NYSE:WSM): Q1 GAAP EPS of $4.07 beats by $1.37.

Revenue of $1.66B (-5.7% Y/Y) beats by $10M.

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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