Thursday, May 2, 2024

The Morning Call--Cue the Market confusion

 The Morning Call

 

5/2/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/taper-un-tantrum-stocks-bonds-gold-soar-fed-eases-balance-sheet-pressure

 

            More charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/massive-moves

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          March construction spending fell 0.2% versus forecasts of +0.3%.

 

The March JOLTS (job openings) report showed total available jobs at 8.4 million versus projections of 8.9 million.

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/05/bls-job-openings-decreased-to-85.html

 

The April manufacturing PMI was 50.0 versus estimates of 49.9.

 

The April ISM manufacturing index was 49.2 versus expectations of 50.0.

 

                        International

 

The April German manufacturing PMI was 42.5 versus consensus of 42.2; the April EU manufacturing PMI was 45.7 versus 45.6.

 

                        Other

 

                          March median household income.

                          https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/05/median-household-income-in-march-2024.html

           

            The Fed

 

The FOMC wrapped its latest meeting yesterday. Rates were left unchanged. The rhetoric in the official statement was slightly more hawkish but the QT tapering was reduced more than anticipated (in other words it was somewhat dovish). Cue the Market confusion. Here is the redlined statement.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-15

 

              The elections are making the Fed’s job tougher.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/01/business/economy/federal-reserve-presidential-election.html

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              How to think about debt.

              https://collabfund.com/blog/how-i-think-about-debt/

 

            Inflation

 

              More signs of inflation.

              https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/30/worker-pay-rose-more-than-expected-in-q1-in-another-sign-of-persistent-inflation.html

 

     Bottom line

 

            Wednesday’s market wrap.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-and-bonds-pare-initial-dovish-fed-gains-newsquawk-us-market-wrap

 

            Update on Q1 earnings.

            https://sherwood.news/markets/stocks-earnings-q1-analyst-expectations/

 

            Update on valuations.

            https://mrzepczynski.blogspot.com/2024/04/cash-is-king-again-and-stocks-are.html

 

            Measuring sentiment.

            https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/04/confidence-sentiment-and-news-in-april-some-time-series

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Paychex (NASDAQ:PAYX) declares $0.98/share quarterly dividend10.1% increase from prior dividend of $0.89.

 

UPS (NYSE:UPS) declares $1.63/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

 

C.H. Robinson Worldwide press release (NASDAQ:CHRW): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.86 beats by $0.23.

Revenue of $4.41B (-4.1% Y/Y) beats by $130M.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            What to do if you are getting audited.

            https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/4630180-so-youre-getting-audited-by-the-irs-what-should-you-do-next/

 

                        The best foods to eat to stave off arthritis.

            What foods you really need to eat to reduce inflammation (nationalgeographic.com)

 

 

                        Markets have to clear.

            https://www.fortunesandfrictions.com/post/queue-with-the-peasants

 

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