The Morning Call---No slowdown in QT

 

The Morning Call

 

10/13/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

                 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/absymal-auction-inflation-angst-slam-stocks-bonds-lower-dollar-soars

 

            Bear market rally?

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/is-this-years-rise-in-us-stocks-a-bear-market-rally/#more-20971

 

Interest rate stress remains intact.

https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/rates-stress-remains-intact

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

                         

Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 209,000 versus consensus of 210,000.

 

                        International

 

                          August EU industrial production rose 0.6% versus projections of +0.1%.

 

September Chinese CPI was +0.2% versus estimates of +0.3%; September YoY PPI was -2.5% versus -2.4%; the September trade balance was $77.7 billion versus $70 billion.

 

                        Other

        

The Fed

 

  No slowdown in QT.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/shrinking-it

 

  Banks’ use of Fed’s emergency funds hits record high.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/banks-use-feds-emergency-funds-hits-new-record-high-retail-money-market-fund-inflows-surge

 

  One EU leader warns ECB against tightening.

  https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/ecb-should-not-stop-bond-buys-early-stournaras-says-2023-10-12/

 

Inflation

 

  The tailwind of falling commodity prices has ended.

  https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/10/september-producer-prices-confirm-tailwind-of-falling-commodity-prices-has-ended.html

 

Recession

 

  US credit card spending plunges.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/broad-slowdown-us-credit-card-spending-plunge-surpasses-worst-month-covid-crisis

 

Geopolitics

 

  Israel give north Gazans 24 hours to evacuate.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/israel-gives-11-million-gazans-24-hours-evacuate-northern-strip-hamas-says-ignore

 

  Painfully hard and painfully easy analysis.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/painfully-hard-and-painfully-easy-analysis

 

The Bond Market

 

  Bond traders are starting to buy the long bond.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-12/winning-curve-trades-closed-as-bearish-bond-momentum-fades-away?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            Bulls**t Story of the Day

                                                

              Anther wild ass guess from ‘What!  Me Worry? Yellen.

              https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/11/economy/janet-yellen-israel-hamas-economy/index.html

 

     Bottom line.

 

            Howard Marks suggests a serious reallocation of portfolio assets.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2023/10/12/further-thoughts-on-sea-change-oaktree

 

            Profits are making a comeback.

https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/profits-are-making-a-comeback-2af53ab0?mod=hp_lead_pos2&utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=277882064&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-89_FuFI8magf7aqype5vfukda5l_zXWMo6MNy4M_SLV_D_gdmvT14ZNr68fnU0jCsRb2M8hPPZsu_jVO23J7ZWFW74OQ&utm_content=277882064&utm_source=hs_email

 

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

BlackRock press release (NYSE:BLK): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $10.91 beats by $2.57.

Revenue of $4.52B (+4.9% Y/Y) in-line.

Paychex (NASDAQ:PAYX) declares $0.89/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous

 

UK regulator greenlights Microsoft’s Activision acquisition.

https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/uk-regulator-green-lights-microsofts-blockbuster-activision-deal

 

What I am reading today

           

                        The secret decoded letters of Mary, Queen of Scots.

            Decoded secret letters reveal royal plot against Queen Elizabeth I (nationalgeographic.com)

 

            Asteroid sample contains water, carbon and the organic building blocks of life.

            https://www.upi.com/Science_News/2023/10/11/NASA-Bennu-sample-OSIRIS-REx/9221697031326/

 

 

                ACT test scores for US students drop to 30 year low.

                https://www.zerohedge.com/political/dumbocracy-achieved-act-test-scores-us-students-drop-30-year-low