The Morning Call---Bond valuations are cheap

The Morning Call

 

10/11/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-extend-post-terror-attack-gains-oil-bonds-gold-flat

 

Three more charts.

https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/3-charts-we-are-watching-rates-rollercoaster

 

The short squeeze arrived right on schedule.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/short-squeeze-arrived-right-schedule

 

Underlying conditions for stocks are beginning to stabilize.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/underlying-conditions-stocks-beginning-stabilize

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications were up 0.6% while purchase applications were up 0.7%.

 

Month to date retail chain store sales grew slightly faster than in the prior week.

                       

  September PPI rose 0.5% versus estimates of +0.3%; core PPI was up 0.3% versus up 0.2%.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/us-producer-prices-continue-resurgence-september-gas-prices-soar

 

                        International

 

September Japanese YoY machine tool orders fell 11.2% versus forecasts of -15.0%.

 

                          September Chinese YoY vehicle sales were up 9.5% versus +10.0%.

 

                          September German CPI was up 0.3%, in line.

 

                        Other

           

                          Results from the latest NY Fed survey.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/ny-fed-survey-finds-surge-household-delinquency-expectations-worst-april-2020-covid-crash

 

            The Fed

 

I have long complained about the Fed’s QE policy in terms of its negative impact on the economy.  This article by Sheila Bair (my favorite [ex] bureaucrat) spells out those consequences I continually harp on.

https://www.ft.com/content/163db4c6-303d-4a52-9275-66359e4515e2

           

            Inflation

 

              IMF warns of stubborn inflation and weak global growth in 2024.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-10/imf-warns-of-inflation-s-tenacity-weaker-global-growth-in-2024?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

                       

 

Recession

 

  Americans’ savings are much higher than originally thought.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-10/americans-cash-stockpile-is-hundreds-of-billions-bigger-than-thought?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

  Mall vacancy rate unchanged in Q3.

  https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/10/moodys-mall-vacancy-rate-unchanged-in-q3.html

 

  WTO lowers forecast for world trade in 2023.

  https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2023/10/shrinking-world-trade-in-2023.html

 

            The Bond Market

 

              Is good news good news?

              https://alhambrapartners.com/2023/10/08/weekly-market-pulse-good-news-is-good-news-2/

 

                  Bond valuations are cheap.

              Bond Valuations Are Cheap. - RIA (realinvestmentadvice.com)

 

     Bottom line

 

            Latest thoughts from Paul Tudor Jones.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/paul-tudor-jones-you-could-get-world-war-cascade-where-everyone-gets-involved-i-bitcoin-and

 

            Neither a lender nor stockholder be.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2023/10/10/neither-lender-nor-stockholder-be

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

            Exxon buys Pioneer Natural Resources.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/exxon-be-crowned-king-shale-new-mega-deal-purchase-pioneer-60-billion

 

Cummins (NYSE:CMI) declares $1.68/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.