The Morning Call
10/25/23
The
Market
Technical
Tuesday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bitcoin-dollar-soar-squeeze-saves-stocks-yield-curve-flattens
Note: after
bouncing off the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level on Monday, the S&P continued
to rally yesterday, closing back above its 200 DMA, voiding its challenge. Is the worst over or just delayed? I don’t know.
Stay cautious for the time being.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/hold-or-not-hold
When does the year-end
rally start?
https://allstarcharts.com/when-year-end-rally/
The pain trade is
higher into year end.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/pain-trade-higher-year-end
This analysis suggests
that the S&P’s break below its 200 DMA is not a case for alarm.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2023/10/s-500-decline-below-200-moving-day.html
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly mortgage
applications were down 1.0% while purchase applications were down 2.2%.
Month to date
retail chain store sales grew slightly faster than in the prior week.
September building
permits declined 4.5% versus forecast of -4.4%.
The October flash
manufacturing PMI was 50.0 versus expectations of 49.5; the flash services PMI
was 50.9 versus 49.8; the flash composite PMI was 51.0 versus 49.8.
The October
Richmond Fed manufacturing index was 3.0 versus projections of -1.0.
International
The August
Japanese leading economic indicators were reported at 109.2 versus estimates of
109.5.
The October German
business climate index was 86.9 versus consensus of 85.9; the October current
conditions index was 89.2 versus 88.5.
Other
The
Fed
Beware of another Black Monday.
The Taylor Rule is signaling that the Fed
should be done hiking.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/taylor-rule-signals-fed-already-done-hiking
Fiscal
Policy
Deficits, big and
getting bigger.
Civil
Strife
What can you do if a mob surrounds your car?
China
China’s great leap backward.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2023/10/guest-contribution-chinas-great-leap-backward
China’s property crisis.
The
Bond Market
Powell needs to shut
up.
https://alhambrapartners.com/2023/10/22/weekly-market-pulse-an-ego-driven-fed/
How bad is the bond market?
https://mrzepczynski.blogspot.com/2023/10/how-bad-is-bond-market-take-look-at.html
Bottom line
For the bulls.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stocks-place-wharton-professor-jeremy-014805657.html
Active asset
managers are bleeding cash.
Market sentiment suggests that the Fed Funds rate has peaked.
https://www.capitalspectator.com/market-sentiment-suggests-fed-funds-rate-has-peaked-again/
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
General
Dynamics press release (NYSE:GD): Q3 GAAP EPS of $3.04 beats by $0.12.
Revenue
of $10.6B (+6.0% Y/Y) beats by $520M.
Automatic
Data Processing press release (NASDAQ:ADP): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of
$2.08 beats by $0.06.
Revenue of $4.5B (+7.1% Y/Y) misses by $10M
Microsoft press release (NASDAQ:MSFT): Q1 GAAP EPS of $2.99 beats by $0.34.
Revenue
of $56.5B (+12.8% Y/Y) beats by $1.95B.
Canadian
National Railway press release (NYSE:CNI): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of
C$1.69.
Revenue
of C$4.0B (-12% Y/Y)
Operating
income of C$1,517 million for the third quarter of 2023, a decrease of C$415
million, or 21% and C$4,779 million for the first nine months of 2023, a
decrease of C$149 million, or 3%.
Canadian
National Railway (NYSE:CNI) declares CAD 0.79/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
What
I am reading today
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