The Morning Call
10/17/23
The
Market
Technical
Monday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/yields-stocks-crypto-jump-vix-gold-crude-dump
Stuck in neutral.
Stuck
in neutral: What's next? | Zero Hedge
What drives the
Market next?
Conflict
Or Earnings? What Drives The Market Next? - RIA (realinvestmentadvice.com)
One year anniversary
of a new bull market?
https://allstarcharts.com/happy-anniversary-bull-market/
JP Morgan traders:
three reasons to be bullish.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorgan-traders-3-reasons-be-bullish-near-term-risks-remain
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
September retail
sales were up 0.7% versus expectations of +0.3%; ex autos and gas, they were up
0.6% versus +0.1%.
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/us-retail-sales-soared-again-september
International
August UK average
earnings (3 Mo/YoY) rose 8.1% versus forecasts of +8.3%.
The October EU
economic sentiment index came in at +2.3 versus predictions of -8.0; the
October German economic sentiment index was -1.1 versus -9.3; the October German
current conditions index was -79.9 versus -80.8.
Other
Fiscal
Policy
The Covid bailout of state and local
governments was unnecessary.
https://reason.com/2023/10/13/the-covid-bailout-of-state-and-local-governments-was-unnecessary/
Inflation
Food inflation is crushing low income Americans.
Recession
Recession is no longer the consensus.
https://www.wsj.com/economy/a-recession-is-no-longer-the-consensus-3ad0c3a3
A soft landing in the US could be hard for everyone
else.
The price of oil and a strong dollar don’t
help.
https://www.ft.com/content/07b162c9-1b73-43fd-8c30-9dfcea7e7eb5
Home sales on track for slowest growth since housing
bust.
The percentage of mortgage loans in forbearance
decreased in September.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/10/mba-survey-share-of-mortgage-loans-in.html
The
Financial System
There is a quiet global banking boom underway.
https://www.axios.com/2023/10/14/global-banking-boom-crisis-svb
China
China’s banks may be loaded with hidden bad
debts.
The Bond Market
Why bonds can’t rally.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/if-inflation-37-and-oil-rising-treasuries-cant-rally
The pain in bond land can get worse.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/treasuries-pain-can-get-much-worse-term-premium-dynamics-show
Bond extremes.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/3-charts-we-are-watching-bond-extremes
Bottom
line
Q3 earnings
tracking a 9% beat.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/q3-earnings-tracking-9-beat-first-positive-estimate-revisions-2021
If the economy is
so strong, why are consumer stocks tanking?
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Johnson
& Johnson press release (NYSE:JNJ): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.66 beats by $0.14.
Revenue of $21.35B (+6.8% Y/Y) beats by $300M
What
I am reading today
Tuesday morning humor.
https://babylonbee.com/news/israel-cuts-off-gaza-from-all-updates-on-taylor-swift--travis-kelce
The
murder that changed history.
What
really happened on the Ides of March? (nationalgeographic.com)
Inside
the conspiracy.
Inside
the conspiracy to kill Julius Caesar (nationalgeographic.com)
The
economics of college sports participation.
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for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
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