Tuesday, October 17, 2023

The Morning Call---Recession is no longer the consensus

 

The Morning Call

 

10/17/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

Monday in the charts.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/yields-stocks-crypto-jump-vix-gold-crude-dump

 

Stuck in neutral.

Stuck in neutral: What's next? | Zero Hedge

 

What drives the Market next?

Conflict Or Earnings? What Drives The Market Next? - RIA (realinvestmentadvice.com)

 

One year anniversary of a new bull market?

https://allstarcharts.com/happy-anniversary-bull-market/

 

            JP Morgan traders: three reasons to be bullish.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorgan-traders-3-reasons-be-bullish-near-term-risks-remain

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

September retail sales were up 0.7% versus expectations of +0.3%; ex autos and gas, they were up 0.6% versus +0.1%.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/us-retail-sales-soared-again-september

 

                        International

 

August UK average earnings (3 Mo/YoY) rose 8.1% versus forecasts of +8.3%.

 

The October EU economic sentiment index came in at +2.3 versus predictions of -8.0; the October German economic sentiment index was -1.1 versus -9.3; the October German current conditions index was -79.9 versus -80.8.

                       

                        Other

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              The Covid bailout of state and local governments was unnecessary.

              https://reason.com/2023/10/13/the-covid-bailout-of-state-and-local-governments-was-unnecessary/

 

            Inflation

 

              Food inflation is crushing low income Americans.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/ticking-time-bomb-food-inflation-crushing-millions-low-income-americans

 

            Recession

 

              Recession is no longer the consensus.

              https://www.wsj.com/economy/a-recession-is-no-longer-the-consensus-3ad0c3a3

 

              A soft landing in the US could be hard for everyone else.

  https://www.wsj.com/economy/global/a-soft-landing-in-the-u-s-could-be-hard-for-everyone-else-1db44fca?mod=economy_lead_pos2&utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=278426058&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-9Ko9qObPDBhlZhXdAkJ8OP97BmKO44ZTezYelSjUewfOt5gM5O6iHLbzp9TI5zNJW98C7nOO8TzpAO-cnLnku5KZzrlw&utm_content=278426058&utm_source=hs_email

               

              The price of oil and a strong dollar don’t help.

              https://www.ft.com/content/07b162c9-1b73-43fd-8c30-9dfcea7e7eb5

                       

              Home sales on track for slowest growth since housing bust.

              https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/home-sales-on-track-for-slowest-year-since-housing-bust-202453ab?mod=hp_lead_pos7

                          

              The percentage of mortgage loans in forbearance decreased in September.

              https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/10/mba-survey-share-of-mortgage-loans-in.html

 

            The Financial System

 

              There is a quiet global banking boom underway.

              https://www.axios.com/2023/10/14/global-banking-boom-crisis-svb

 

            China

 

              China’s banks may be loaded with hidden bad debts.

              https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/10/15/chinas-banks-may-be-loaded-up-with-hidden-bad-loans

 

                The Bond Market

 

  Why bonds can’t rally.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/if-inflation-37-and-oil-rising-treasuries-cant-rally

 

  The pain in bond land can get worse.

   https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/treasuries-pain-can-get-much-worse-term-premium-dynamics-show

 

   Bond extremes.

   https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/3-charts-we-are-watching-bond-extremes

 

    Bottom line

 

            Q3 earnings tracking a 9% beat.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/q3-earnings-tracking-9-beat-first-positive-estimate-revisions-2021

 

            If the economy is so strong, why are consumer stocks tanking?

https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/if-the-economy-is-so-strong-why-are-consumer-stocks-tanking-904fbe7f?st=uh0d7jxdq8osk0x&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

 

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Johnson & Johnson press release (NYSE:JNJ): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.66 beats by $0.14.

Revenue of $21.35B (+6.8% Y/Y) beats by $300M

 

What I am reading today

               

            Tuesday morning humor.

            https://babylonbee.com/news/israel-cuts-off-gaza-from-all-updates-on-taylor-swift--travis-kelce

 

            The murder that changed history.

            What really happened on the Ides of March? (nationalgeographic.com)

           

            Inside the conspiracy.

            Inside the conspiracy to kill Julius Caesar (nationalgeographic.com)

 

                       

                        The economics of college sports participation.

            https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2023/10/the-economics-of-collegiate-sports-participation.html

 

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