The Morning Call---When the government usurps the capital markets.

 

The Morning Call

 

10/19/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

Wednesday in the charts.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/gold-dollar-bond-yields-surge-after-gaza-china-banks-fedspeak

 

Note: the S&P closed right on the lower boundary of its former short term uptrend.  Its 50 DMA and 100 DMA hover overhead and the 200 DMA is just below.  So we have some hard resistance/support levels against which to judge direction.  I can make arguments for a break either way.  But it is best to wait and let Mr. Market tell us.

 

            Something has got to give.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/somethings-gotta-give-haunted-bonds

 

            China in turmoil.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/china-turmoil

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 198,000 versus estimates of 212,000.

                       

  The October Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index came in at -9 versus expectations of -6.4.           

                            

                        International

 

                        Other

 

                          Architecture billings decline in September.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/10/aia-architecture-billings-new-decline.html

 

            The Fed

 

              The latest Beige Book provides little new information on the economy.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/beige-book-find-little-change-outlook-turn-weaker-and-recession-mentions-tumble

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Should we stop worrying about the deficit?          

              https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2023/10/17/open_to_debate_should_we_stop_worrying_about_national_deficits.html

 

              The rising federal debt puts the Fed in a tight spot.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-18/wall-street-worries-over-swelling-us-debt-put-fed-in-tight-spot?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

               

              When the government usurps the capital markets.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/when-us-government-only-borrower-its-no-wonder-yields-rising

 

            Inflation

 

              The inflation surge is over.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2023/10/the-inflation-surge-is-over-now-well-see-if-interest-rate-increases-cause-recession

 

              Known unknowns.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2023/10/inflation-known-unknowns

 

            Recession

 

              The latest business cycle indicators.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2023/10/business-cycle-indicators-mid-october-2

 

              The latest Q3 nowcast.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-q3-gdp-nowcast-still-indicates-accelerating-growth/

 

              Housing affordability at the lowest level since 1980’s.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/us-housing-affordability-lowest-level-80s-nar

 

            Geopolitics

 

              Israel, Hamas and 30 million barrels of oil.                         

              https://www.city-journal.org/article/israel-hamas-and-30-million-barrels-of-oil

 

              Saudi’s issue urgent notice to leave Lebanon.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/saudis-issue-urgent-warning-leave-lebanon-immediately-now-us-embassy-beirut-begins

 

              You are probably not going to like what comes after Pax Americana.

              https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/youre-not-going-to-like-what-comes

 

            The Bond Market

 

              The volatility of the long bond is the highest since the 2020 pandemic.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-17/long-end-treasuries-fluctuate-by-most-since-2020-pandemic-onset?srnd=markets-vp&utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=278614021&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_bVk4iGcSBqwqlVWeVcN725fRl-P7RyawfGH70Qi7_NrAeZqpDlsZ9t4pKlE1YGQn3hMBVsosGH-DOIkdg6Hav90p7ag&utm_content=278614021&utm_source=hs_email&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

                          The more the bond market sells off, the higher the likelihood of a ‘hard’ landing.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/will-resumption-hate-selling-bonds-shift-economy-hard-landing-contraction-nomura

 

     Bottom line

 

            Who is going to push the panic button this time?

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2023/10/18/crisis-events-hallmark-federal-reserve-lance-roberts

 

            Dividend futures through 2024.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2023/10/a-first-look-at-future-for-s-500.html

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

                        Thursday morning humor.

            https://babylonbee.com/news/biden-departs-for-israel-to-preside-over-opening-ceremonies-for-world-war-iii

 

Part two:  this is what our education system is producing.

HUMILIATING: Gen-Z Can't Answer the Most Basic Questions - YouTube

 

Octopus intelligence shakes up Darwin’s tree.

https://mindmatters.ai/2023/09/octopus-intelligence-shakes-up-darwins-tree/

 

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