The Morning Call
10/26/23
The
Market
Technical
Wednesday in the
charts.
More charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/technical-trouble
Note: the S&P
reversed course again, closing yesterday below both (1) its 200 DMA which restarts
the clock on a new challenge of that support level and (2) the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement
level. If it remains there through the
close on Monday, it will have successfully challenged both support levels; and
as I mentioned before, the next visible significant support is ~3800. The sidelines remain the place to be until Mr.
Market tells us what he is going to do.
What if rates
matter to tech?
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/what-if-rates-matter-tech
Short term risks
are piling up.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/short-term-risks-are-piling-market
When the time
comes to buy.
https://allstarcharts.com/when-the-time-comes-to-buy/
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 210,000
versus consensus of 208,000.
Preliminary Q3 GDP growth was 4.9% versus
predictions of 4.3%; preliminary consumer spending was up 4.0% versus +0.7%;
the preliminary PCE price index was +2.4% versus +2.5%.
September new home sales rose 12.3% versus estimates
of -11.0%.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/10/25/new-home-sales-jump-september-2023
International
Other
How useful is the ADP private payroll report?
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2023/10/less-than-useful-data-adp-employment.html
The
Fed
Jim Grant: the Fed needs some grounding in
common sense.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jim-grant-fed-needs-some-grounding-financial-history-common-sense
The ECB pauses rate hikes but sticks with ‘higher
for longer’.
Fiscal
Policy
If the economy is growing why are tax receipts
falling?
https://issuesinsights.com/2023/10/24/how-did-biden-manage-to-lose-300-billion-in-tax-revenues/
How much faster is the national debt going to
grow?
Recession
As of October, the
Conference Board’s confidence index does not reflect a recession.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2023/10/does-the-confidence-index-say-were-in-a-recession
Spending is up,
savings are down.
The flash PMI’s suggest increasing odds of a
‘soft’ landing.
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/800861276eb949fc9646061f8eb2ffb4
China
China unveils fresh economic stimulus.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4023863-china-stimulus-bond-issue-budget-deficit-weak-economy
The
Bond Market
The
bond market has a supply/demand problem.
https://www.ft.com/content/b0f842ad-7ec5-45b8-9752-a6ae0252b36f
Bottom line
Investment regime change.
https://ritholtz.com/2023/10/understanding-investing-regime-change/
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Mastercard
press release (NYSE:MA): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $3.39 beats by $0.18.
Revenue
of $6.5B (+14% Y/Y) misses by $30M.
Altria press release (NYSE:MO): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.28 misses by $0.02.
Revenue
of $5.28B (-2.4% Y/Y) misses by $150M.
UPS press release (NYSE:UPS): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.57 beats by $0.01.
Revenue
of $21.06B (-13.0% Y/Y) misses by $410M.
What
I am reading today
Thursday morning
humor.
https://babylonbee.com/news/republicans-place-house-speaker-job-on-ziprecruiter
Why would we use
less cheaper energy?
https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/but-why-would-we-use-less-cheaper-energy
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for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
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